The price of gas can reach 300 euros/MWh in the coming weeks, according to XTB

MADRID, 21 Jul. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The price of gas in the Amsterdam market may skyrocket in the coming weeks and reach 300 euros/MWh despite the restrictions on consumption proposed by the European Union and some countries before the arrival of winter, according to the study service from XTB.

In this Wednesday's session, the European reference gas price shot up above 166 euros/MWh.

The European Commission thinks that Russia will not normalize natural gas flows through Nord Stream 1 this week and is preparing for new restrictions, which is why it has proposed to start applying a 15% voluntary reduction in the use of natural gas between countries members to prepare for a possible supply cut by the Russian country.

"Despite these austerity measures, we should not be surprised if gas prices on the Amsterdam stock exchange jump into the €200-250/MWh range. Even the €300/MWh level is possible," explains Manuel Pinto. , XTB analyst.

However, he acknowledges that the impact could be less if there is a milder winter than normal or if Russia resumes supplies to Germany as normal.

Analyzing the evolution of the price of different raw materials since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the XTB analysis service highlights that natural gas is the one that has experienced the highest percentage of increase: 59.98% since for the conflict to break out. For its part, Brent oil has increased by 8.32%.

Faced with these behaviors, the rest of the raw materials, such as gold, platinum or aluminum have suffered decreases of, in some cases, up to 30%.

To deal with the current supply problems, XTB notes that "of course the EU has the option to restart coal-fired power plants, but these also have limited power capacity."

"In this case, it is worth paying attention to the potential significant increase in the demand for CO2 emission permits, unless the regulations in this regard are relaxed. However, the most likely is that the demand will reduce and not only in the industrial sector. , but also in the use of heating," says Pinto.

The XTB analysis service highlights that Bloomberg points out that Europe will be able to replace approximately half of the Russian supply, so Europe's response in adjusting demand will have to be really decisive. "All of this indicates that not only will we feel colder this winter, but our portfolio will also lose weight," says Pinto.

XTB's global analytics department ranked second in the G10 category and third in the Big 13 Analysts category, according to the Bloomberg Global Positions Survey.