Taming uncertainty, a burning obligation

The crisis of the coronavirus reminds us of the complexity of the decision-making, stresses Marine Balansard, DG of the cabinet Ariseal and co-author of "Decide, it works".

The uncertainty is inherent in the decision. This relates both to the environment of our decisions but also the outcome : we do not know only in hindsight whether the decision was the right one. The decision-maker, economic or political, is normally used to manage this setting.

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So why it seems so difficult, today, to decide in the context of very high uncertainty caused by the health crisis of the coronavirus ? Three factors overlap and need to be mastered to advance to the best in the management of the crisis.

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Reduce uncertainty before making a decision

We can't remove the uncertainty, but it is necessary to reduce it before making a decision. In the case of the current crisis, the creation, even late, on the 11th of march last, of the Scientific Council, has offered the government a tool to assist it in its decision-making. This Council brings together an interesting mix of personalities : of doctors, with different specialties, modellers, anthropologists and other social scientists. It would have been interesting to combine it with a social psychologist to shed light on the ownership of decisions by those who must apply them.

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This time, contrary to what happened during the episode of the H1N1 flu in 2009, the medicine of city, that allows you to include the experience in the field, is represented and contribute fully to the discussions. If the members of the Committee are not all agreed, this is almost reassuring : they discuss, reflect, argue, as many elements to bring to the attention of the decision maker. Professor Delfraissy, who chairs the council, remember rightly : 'It is not we who take the decisions, it is the policy'. Indeed, the role of the expert is not to settle but to shed light, in particular on the risks. This work of reduction of uncertainty and risk takes time, time that is necessary : it must be left to the collective intelligence and the means to deploy in order to be able to offer sustainable solutions.

Find the right cue for sit decisions

'Situation equivalent to that of the second World War' according to Angela Merkel, 'health crisis, the worst since a century,' according to Emmanuel Macron or 'real tsunami' to others : in the face of uncertainty, we all seek a guide, a similar situation, who can inspire us to reflect on the decisions to be taken. The human being is incapable of developing a thought from nothing, it requires the use of support points.

The difficulty in this crisis regarding the choice of the reference point. As a new situation is, by definition, without a marker, the strategy and the decisions are more long to be put in place. They may be poorly understood if the point of reference is not approved by the citizens who are asked to make the decision. For example, if the reference point is 'the war', the fear of famine, and the exodus of the cities becomes a logical consequence. This quest for a point of reference point is crucial : if it is not shared by all actors of the decision (those who counsel, those who take it and those who apply), the decision presents the risk of not being understood and therefore poorly or not applied or even dismissed.

Manage the time of the decision : to distinguish the urgent from the important

If one refers to the matrix of general Eisenhower, to prioritize the decisions to be taken as a priority, it is imperative to distinguish between what is urgent and/or important from what is not. And then distinguish the urgent from the important.

"The urgent and the important" need to be treated immediately. For example, to reduce the spread of the virus is "urgent and important", given our hospital capacities, and calls an immediate decision for containment. Use the data of professor Raoult, or other medical teams, also seems urgent and important.

"The important and not urgent" must be worked out in the long term. The municipal elections were important for our democracy, but not urgent : they were without doubt to be shifted. The search for a vaccine is important but not urgent : the development time is long and does not provide an immediate response to the epidemic. The organization of the ibc is important, but not urgent : the nation needs of its cohort of students passing through this course of education, but if this occurs two months later than usually, this will not be dramatic.

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If these three factors - reduction in uncertainty, the choice of a benchmark to be relevant, management of priorities - are not controlled upstream, it is useless to hope that the dédecisions taken have the desired impact. Citizens are not necessarily irresponsible, they just need clarity. If the context is understood, each of the players may be agile, responsive, and find meaning in them, including in some difficult decisions : it is felt regularly in the company. And as in business, it is necessary to think beyond the crisis, after, and, in particular, to know how to manage the commitment of each on the shelf.