The IMF lowers the estimate of Spain's GDP in 2023 by eight tenths, to 1.2%, but continues to lead the eurozone

MADRID, 11 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has decided this Tuesday to lower its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts in general, which in the case of Spain has translated into a cut of eight tenths for 2023, to 1, 2%, according to the 'World Economic Outlook' report.

"The future health of the global economy critically depends on the proper calibration of monetary policy, the course of the war in Ukraine, and the possibility of more supply-side problems related to the pandemic, for example, in China," it has warned. based in Washington.

The IMF has adjusted with respect to its latest forecasts, published in June, that Spain will grow by 4.3% this year, three tenths more, while economic progress next year will be reduced by eight tenths, to 1.2% .

Despite this bulky adjustment for 2023, Spain remains at the head of the large economies of the eurozone in terms of growth both this year and next.

Thus, the growth of Italy and France in 2022 has been adjusted upwards two tenths, to 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively. On its side, Germany will grow this year by 1.5%, three tenths more.

The worst data can be seen for 2023, when both Germany and Italy will enter a recession. The former will contract by 0.3% in the year, which represents a cut of 1.1 points in its growth forecasts compared to the latest IMF forecasts. The second will contract by 0.2%, which represents a cut of nine tenths. On its side, France will register an expansion of 0.7% next year, three tenths less.

In this way, in the eurozone as a whole, growth of 3.1% will be registered in 2022, which represents an improvement of five tenths compared to the June forecasts, while the estimates for 2023 have been cut by seven tenths, up to 0.5%.

The rest of the macroeconomic table that the IMF has estimated only has a comparison with the forecasts of six months ago, since those of three months ago only included the GDP. Thus, the multilateral organization considers that the average inflation in Spain in 2022 will be 8.8%, compared to the 5.3% it expected in April. By 2023, it will stand at 4.9%, compared to the 1.3% it projected half a year ago.

Despite lower growth and high price levels, the labor market shows signs of continuous improvement. The Fund expects unemployment to close this year at 12.7%, seven tenths less than the April forecast, while in 2023 it will reach 12.3%, eight tenths less.