BNP Paribas believes that Spain will enter a technical recession and that it will grow by 0.5% in 2023

MADRID, 15 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The French bank BNP Paribas estimates growth for Spain of 4.3% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023, although it expects the Spanish economy to enter a technical recession by falling 0.4% in the last quarter of this year and 0.2% in the first year to come.

As for other surrounding countries, the bank estimates that France will grow 2.3% this year and 0.5% next year, and Germany will grow 1.4% and 0.4%, respectively.

The French bank points out in a recent report that the recession in Europe "is inevitable" in the last quarter of this year, although it will not be very deep thanks to the support of the public sector.

The firm has lowered its global growth forecast for this year to 3%, the same figure that is expected for the following year. The United States, for its part, will grow 1.8% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023, with a less negative long-term forecast than that of the Old Continent.

As for inflation, Spain will close the year with a CPI of 8.9%, a percentage that will drop significantly in the following years to 4.5% in 2023 and 1.9% the following year, for even below the objective of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Germany will have an inflation of 8.1% this year and 4.7% next year, while France's will be 5.8% in 2022 and 4.2% the next. The United States will further moderate its figures, registering a CPI in 2022 of 7.8% and 3% in 2023.

Turning to the markets, BNP Paribas expects volatility to continue, especially in Europe and in currencies. The bank remains cautious on European stocks and expects corporate earnings to be revised lower, while remaining neutral on US stocks.