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MADRID, 14 Jul. (EUROPA PRESS) -
BBVA Research has maintained its growth forecast for the Spanish economy in 2022 at 4.1%, but has cut that for 2023, from 3.3% to 1.8%, in a context marked by uncertainty due to the war in Ukraine and by the intense escalation of inflation.
"Household consumption has been negatively affected by the increase in prices and some supply factors," reveals the new BBVA Research 'Situation Spain' report published this Thursday.
The director of BBVA Research and chief economist of the BBVA Group, Jorge Sicilia, explained that inflationary pressures are surprising on the upside, and acknowledged that it is not yet clear whether the peak has been reached. "We fear that it will move to more price components," he warned.
In this sense, BBVA Research forecasts that the variation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will remain high, reaching almost 8% on average during 2022, compared to the 7% previously estimated, and 3% in 2023, compared to 2.5% former. Even more worrying may be the underlying trend, which could reach 5% on average this year and 4% the next, Sicilia has warned.
Despite this inflationary episode and the lowering of forecasts for 2023, BBVA Research considers that growth in Spain will continue to be positive and, going forward, the entity believes that there are reasons to justify the continuation of the recovery.
