AIReF anticipates a fall in GDP of 0.2% in the third quarter

MADRID, 23 Ago. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) forecasts that the GDP will fall by 0.2% in the third quarter of the year in quarter-on-quarter rate, which would correspond to a year-on-year rate in the period of 3.4%.

According to the latest update of the forecast model for the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real time (MIPred) published by AIReF, the level of activity would be 2.7 percentage points below that corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2019, before the pandemic.

In this new MIPred forecast update, AIReF has incorporated a new indicator, total imports of goods for the month of June, although it specifies that at this time it only has 57.1% of the indicators for July and no additional data or August or September. The indicator is updated as new data is published.

Specifically, the model will be updated in the coming weeks with the indicators that will be published in the first days of September referring to the month of August, such as electricity consumption, the monthly average number of workers registered with Social Security, the Index Services PMI or the total sales of large companies, in the latter case with data for the month of July.

For 2022 as a whole, AIReF forecasts growth of 4.2% for the Spanish economy, one tenth less than in its previous estimates for April (4.3%), and places the average inflation rate for the year at 7 .8%.