"This is a very serious crisis (...) but the recovery is going at least as well as we had expected, and even a little better," said François Villeroy de Galhau.
This is a glimmer of hope in spite of the strong fears, such as those of the IMF. The economic recovery in French is going "a little better" than had been forecast lately the Bank of France, said on Sunday on LCI and its governor François Villeroy de Galhau. "I do not say that we are out of business, it is a very serious crisis. In addition, its effects on employment are offset in time, so they are coming, but the recovery is going at least as well as we had expected, and even a little bit better," he said.
He said, and lifted a corner of the veil on the trend which will be given Tuesday, when a point on a new estimate of French growth in the second quarter. "I do not yet have all the figures, we give them to you Tuesday morning", he said.
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After you have initially expected a rebound in growth to "-12 % at the end of June", he estimated Sunday that "this will be better than this", relying on a number that is a little better than the -15 % expected in the second quarter. On the whole of the year, "the latest trends confirm our figure, it will be -10 % or - we'll do a review in the month of September - maybe a little better," said the governor of the Bank of France.
A curve of recovery, "wing of a bird"
He has described a curve of recovery, "wing of bird", with a "dip brutal, back as a half-V in the beginning, but then it will smooth out gradually because it will take more time to return to the initial level, before march," said François Villeroy de Galhau. He suggested a rate comparable to that experienced prior to the crisis, "probably in 2022, at the beginning of the year or at mid-year."
According to a document in preparation for the orientation debate of public finances in line Friday, Bercy, envisaged a growth rebound to 8% in 2021, without taking into account the effects of the stimulus plan that the government will present before the fall and which is expected to enhance growth.
Read our complete fileRecovery : improvement of statistics in the trompe-l'oeil In France, the decline in GDP could reach 9% this year, according to the Insee Wirecard, the fall of an icon
After a sharp drop in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 11% expected this year, a result of a shut down of the French economy in the spring in order to combat the spread of coronavirus, the government now expects "a gradual recovery" starting this year, and will extend to 2021.