Simulator retirement : how it makes winners or losers

The simulator of the government is online, with 36 examples of the types. Problem: you can make them say what one wants, demonstrates an expert.

to Reassure the French were worried by the implementation of the pension reform : it is the goal of the simulator official of the government that has just been put online on 19 December - a day later than planned - on the site reforme-retraite.gouv.fr. A request of Emmanuel Macron, pressed by its majority, but also of the president of the region Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand, according to which only the simulator official of the pensions for each of the French would be the "judge of peace", then that "person does not trust anyone".

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"A" gas plant

A mission well ambitious for the tool available. "It has to be a module of information to situate themselves in relation to the reform (am I affected or not?), to know the new rules and see to what extent his future career will be in the new system," says an adviser.

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that did not reassure the trade unions and reformist. For employees affected by the implementation of the future plan points, "a departure at the full rate to an age of equilibrium to 64 years of age is proposed to be completed in 2027," says the site.

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36 case types (employees, civil servants, professions, etc.) to complement it. Examples done by the GIP (public interest group) Union Retreat which brings together 35 of the 42 pension funds. Objective : to be closer to individual situations.

different conclusions with the same software

No question of return to his / her profile and get a personalized response on his future retirement, it would be impossible to implement. "In reality, no worker has the same rights as another and want to create such a simulator is a gas plant, stresses Dominique Prévert, the leader of the consulting firm Optimaretraite. There are as many profiles as insured. The examples are at best indicative, but they do not have anything scientific. We can take a same tool, which is fair, but depending on the settings (quarters, children, accidents in route, sickness, unemployment, expatriation...) that one chooses, the profile that we are going to integrate, it will emerge from the losers or the winners. The real question is : what do we want to highlight ?"

in other words : by giving the same software to an opponent and a supporter of the reform, one will find losers when the other will be the winners. "Just from a desired result to reconstruct a profile", shows Dominique Prévert, who is on loan to the fiscal year for The Express. This is demonstrated by the two case types that it has made and that we publish below.

Celine, the seller, non-framework, is married and the mother of two children. His last gross annual salary is 21 000 euros. His average annual salary is 18 304 € on the 25 best years of his career which will be taken into account in the current system.

important Details : Celine doesn't fit the criteria (yet to refine) to qualify for the minimum pension of 1000 euros announced by the government. Age pivot is maintained as described today by the government (5% penalty per year missing if one leaves before 64 years from 2027).

In both scenarios, it has earned the same sum on the whole of his career. All the parameters are equal, except the number of quarters of contributions, which is reduced in the case number 2.

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Case number 1 : Celine is lost in the future system to points

First hypothesis, Céline meets with its 172 quarters (number needed to from to the full rate for the generation 1973), and would not, therefore, a discount in the current system.

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Optimaretraite

under the current system , the monthly pension gross would be of 905 euros.

In the new points system , it is the whole of its income will be taken into account (646 065€) x 25,31 % /10 = 16 351,93 points. in If the point value is 0.55 (as recommended in the report Delevoye), she will receive a pension of 8993,56 euros that will be increased by 10% thanks to its two children. The monthly pension gross will be 824,41 euros.

The age swivel "increases the bill" because his pension will drop from 10% to life and goes to 674,45 euros if it starts two years before you have achieved it.

Case number 2 : Celine is the winner in the future point system

Second hypothesis : Céline has won the same amount, throughout his career, but with less quarters. Like many women, she had a career-hashed : she could be unemployed by the end of rights (without remuneration), had fewer jobs than in the first case, may be made of the longer studies...

In total, she has lost five years compared to the case of number 1. This is the only parameter that changes.

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Optimaretraite

under the current system , the fact of these qstres missing, Celine has been hit hard by the discount on the basic pension and its supplemental. The monthly pension gross is 617,12 euros instead of 905,78 euros.

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In the points system , it will 824,41 euros if she leaves at the age of balance and 741,97 euros if she left two years before and suffered the penalty of 10%. In one case as in the other, Celine takes advantage of the new system.

"To get Celine in the camp of the losers to the winners, it is enough to take him off of the quarters, summarizes Dominique Prévert. And it was played on a single parameter among the dozen who could change the game. Critics of the reform say that it takes a head full of based on the case type number 1, when supporters will say that it is beneficial in taking the case type number 2." One thing is certain : the debates on the effects of the reform are not going to stop.