The Euribor will climb in July to 4.15% in its monthly rate

MADRID, 28 Jul. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The 12-month Euribor will foreseeably end July at 4.151%, with one day to go before the end of the month, which continues to slow down the rate of rise that it has been registering in recent months, given the possibility that the Central Bank European Union (ECB) make a break in the rise in interest rates, according to data compiled by Europa Press.

Compared to June, the increase is 14 basis points, similar to that registered last month, when it went from 3.862% in May to 4.007%. If the level of July of this year is compared with the same month of 2022, the increase is 3.29 percentage points. In addition, the indicator continues at its highest levels since November 2008, when it stood at 4.350%.

This means that a person who has contracted a variable mortgage of 150,000 euros for 30 years and with a differential of 0.99% plus Euribor and must review their interest rate in the month of May, will register an increase in their mortgage payment. about 265 euros per month.

In absolute terms, it would go from paying about 500 euros to just over 818 euros per month. This increase in the cost of the mortgage payment would mean an additional outlay for families of 3,180 euros more per year.

It is foreseeable that the Euribor will continue its upward trend in August, after the ECB approved on Thursday a new rise in rates of 25 basis points, raising them to 4.25%, their maximum since there are records, so the index --to which most variable-rate mortgages in Spain are referenced-- should include this new increase. However, today, the Euribor has stood at 4.111% in its daily rate, below the 4.140% it registered yesterday.

From iAhorro they point out that there will be no ECB meeting in August, while in September it is possible that the increases will be paralyzed to try to stabilize the market. If this happens, the comparator's mortgage director, Simone Colombelli, is optimistic: "In an environment where there is a stop in the rise in European rates, the Euribor curve will flatten immediately. And if the curve flattens around the 4% will not be bad news, although there is also a risk that, if the interest rate rise continues, the index will reach 5%," he explains.

For his part, the specialist in the HelpMyCash mortgage market, Miquel Riera, recalls that this index is usually above the ECB's main interest and its value rises when this body increases the price of money, and warns that the body could return to raise rates if inflation in the euro area does not fall sufficiently "to soon reach the 2% medium-term target".

For all these reasons, according to Riera, "it is likely that the ECB's main interest rate will rise to 4.5% before the end of the year or that it will remain at its current values". In both scenarios, the analyst assures, the Euribor will tend to rise and could be around 4.5% or even higher by the end of 2023, unless inflation in the euro area experiences a "significant decline".