The Euribor takes a small 'breath' in August by falling to 4.07%, its first fall in 20 months

MADRID, 30 Ago. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The 12-month Euribor, an index that is used as a reference in most variable-rate mortgage loans in Spain, will give a little 'breath' in August, since it will be around 4.07%, its first fall in 20 months, according to data compiled by Europa Press.

With one day left until the end of the eighth month, this level will be below the monthly rate recorded in July of 4.149%, which was its highest level since 2008. However, it will remain high compared to August 2022, when The index stood at 1.249%.

However, it will be its first fall in the last 20 months, since since January 2022 it has not stopped rising.

This will mean that a person who has contracted a variable mortgage of 150,000 euros for 30 years and with a differential of 0.99% plus Euribor and must review their interest rate in the month of August, will register an increase in their mortgage payment of about 238 euros per month, compared to the rise of 265 euros that was registered in July.

In this way, your mortgage payment would go from around 572 euros to around 810 euros per month in August.

The mortgage director of the iAhorro comparator, Simone Colombelli, is cautious, as he recalls that August is, historically, a month of declines because everything is paralyzed. "Most likely, we will see more Euribor rises again from September. I would not say that what we are seeing is a downward trend as such, but rather a small seasonality in the data," says the expert.

In this way, the comparator indicates that in August the Euribor tends to fall or register minimal increases or decreases that are not "significant" for the market. Thus, Colombelli recalls that during the past year 2022, in August the index stood at 1.249%, only two tenths and a half above the data for July (0.992%), "which may seem like a good rise, but when compared With such a drastic increase registered in September, of almost one percentage point, up to 2,233%, it could be said that it was minimal".

Likewise, iAhorro points to the fact that interest rates have exceeded the Euribor in the last two months, something that has not happened since the indicator was positioned in negative and rates at 0%. Colombelli explains that this is because the increase agreed by the European Central Bank (ECB) in July was only 0.25 percentage points. "When we enter an environment of smaller increases, the push to the Euribor is less," he says.

In addition, he points out that if a new rise occurs in September, it does not mean that something similar will occur every month: "At the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 we will not see continuous rate increases, but rather, from time to time, In order to lower inflation (which in some EU countries is more controlled and in others less), the ECB will decide to increase them, maintain them, and maybe even decrease them," he says.

Regarding a possible rate hike in September, Colombelli believes that it will not exceed 25 basis points. However, the comparator does not foresee "major changes" in the last quarter of 2023, in such a way that the Euribor will continue "more or less" as before, with slight rises and falls. For 2024, iAhorro also foresees a difficult year, although a transition towards a decline at the end of next year and the beginning of 2025.

For his part, the HelpMyCash mortgage specialist, Miquel Riera, explains that the slight drop in August reflects that entities are applying lower interest rates on their interbank loans because they anticipate that the ECB will stop increasing its rates in the medium term.

"That is to say, that they adapt their prices to the pause that they expect to take place within the next 12 months," he adds.

This comparator also sees it likely that the ECB will apply a new rate hike in September or October in order to contain inflation, so the Euribor could continue trading slightly upwards in the coming months and will stabilize around 4%. and 4.5% before the end of the year; below, however, the interest rate applied by the ECB.

However, from the comparator they do not rule out that the ECB may now pause the rate hikes, as predicted by various players in the financial market. However, for that to happen, HelpMyCash believes that two conditions should be met: that inflation in the euro area falls at a faster rate than expected in August or September and that the continent's economy is on the verge of recession in the third quarter. .