SANTIAGO DE COMPOSTELA, 12 Feb. (EUROPA PRESS) -
For the first time it gives Vox options to enter Parliament and points to a slight increase in DO that could also give it a seat
The PP could lose next Sunday the absolute majority in Galicia set at 38 deputies, the ceiling given by the latest barometer of the Sociological Research Center that keeps the popular between 34 and 38 seats and once again shoots up the possibilities of the BNG of Ana Pontón with 33.4% voting intention and a range of between 24 and 31 deputies.
This is reflected in the CIS Barometer published this Monday, the last day allowed to publish surveys in the Galician campaign, and which places the PSdeG in collapse, which falls another two points to 18.1%, which would give it 9 to 14 deputies. For its part, Sumar Galicia recovers ground by increasing seven tenths which, with 2.8%, could achieve up to two parliamentarians.
Furthermore, for the first time in the polls prior to the appointment with the polls on Sunday, it gives Vox options to enter the Pazo do Hórreo by rising to 2.4%, a point and a half more than in the barometer from seven days ago ; while it strengthens Democracia Ourensana's chances of achieving representation with a slight increase of one tenth to 0.5% of the total voting intention.
In this way, it reinforces the idea drawn in the two previous samples that the PP could lose the absolute majority that it has maintained in the Galician Community since 2009. On this occasion, it traces the estimates given to Alfonso Rueda's popular party from a week ago, with the same percentage of voting intention (42.2%) and a range of between 34 and 38 deputies, the absolute majority ceiling that, in the three surveys published in recent weeks, has never been exceeded.
Conducted between February 5 and 7, just after the five-way debate held at the CRTVG and the only one in which Rueda has participated so far, the demographic study is based on 3,945 interviews carried out in 284 municipalities in the four provinces. (1,200 in A Coruña and Pontevedra and 800 in Lugo and Ourense).
The hypothetical alternative in the Xunta would be headed by Ana Pontón's BNG, which once again rises in voting intention (0.5 compared to seven days ago and 4.1% compared to the barometer of January 25), which triggers the expectations of the nationalists up to a maximum of 31 deputies and a minimum of 24.
In fact, the frontist candidate is the best valued by those surveyed (5.89) and is seen as the one who cares the most about the problems of Galicia and the second in preference to assume the Presidency of the Xunta, only four tenths behind of the current head of the Galician Executive, Alfonso Rueda (35.0% for the popular and 34.6% for the nationalist).
PSDEG SUNK, ADD RECOVERS, VOX CAN ENTER On the other side, the socialists of José Ramón Gómez Besteiro sink with a new drop of 2 points compared to last week's study, which already showed a decline of three tenths in voting intention . Now, the CIS gives the PSdeG 18.1% of the votes and between 9 and 14 deputies.
Sumar recovers part of what was lost in the last barometer and stands at 2.8%, seven tenths more that increases its chances of entering the Galician Parliament with up to two deputies. Another group that could debut in Galicia would be Vox, which, after BNG, obtained the highest growth in the survey with an increase of 1.5% compared to a week ago.
The CIS also strengthens the options of Democracia Ourensana, the party of the mayor of Ourense, Gonzalo Pérez Jácome, of making the leap into regional politics with a seat in the Pazo do Hórreo that would bring it 0.5% of the estimated vote ( 0.1%). Furthermore, Podemos Galicia falls another tenth and remains at 0.2%, far from being able to enter.
PONTOON, THE BEST RATED
For those surveyed, Ana Pontón is the highest-rated candidate with a score of 5.89, followed by Alfonso Rueda with a 5.29. Already below the pass mark, the socialist Besteiro obtains a 4.85; Marta Lois a 4.6; Pachi Vázquez (Espazo Común) a 3.58; Isabel Faraldo ( Podemos ) a 3.33; Armando Ojea (Democracia Ourensana) and Álvaro Díaz Mella (Vox) a 2.76.
Among the preferences to assume the reins of the Galician Government, the current president Alfonso Rueda is the ideal one for 35%, just four tenths ahead of Ana Pontón (34.6%); while Besteiro is for 11.4% and Marta Lois, for 1.2%. Also included among the options is the state leader of the PP and former regional president, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who is indicated as preferred by 1.6%.
Furthermore, almost 80% (79.7%) assure that they will "certainly" go to vote next Sunday to cast a ballot that 56.3% have decided "long before" the start of the campaign and 17% choose during it. All in all, almost one in four is among the undecided (23.7%) while 73.7% say they already know who they are going to vote for.
More than a third of those surveyed (34.2%) consider that it is the BNG who is raising the issues of "most interest" for Galicia during this campaign, something that 29.3% believe is the PP. The Bloc is also ahead in perception on issues of personal relevance put on the table in the campaign, although, in this case, the PP is at a closer distance (27.4% for nationalists and 27% for popular ones).