Spain will not reduce its debt of 104% of GDP throughout the decade, according to IMF

The country will grow above the euro zone average at least until 2029

MADRID, 17 Abr. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The Spanish economy will continue to grow above the euro zone average over the coming years, at least until 2029, according to the longer-term projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which, however, does not expect a substantial reduction in unemployment, deficit or debt levels until the end of this decade.

According to the Fund's database, Spain's GDP growth, which will far exceed the estimate for the eurozone this year and next, with an expansion of 1.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, compared to the 0.8% and the 1.5% anticipated for the Twenty, you will see how this gap in favor narrows over the following years.

In this way, the Washington-based institution expects Spanish GDP growth to slow to 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% for each of the next three years, while for the euro zone it foresees an expansion 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027 and 2028, with a growth projection of 1.2% for 2029.

Regarding the inflation rate, the IMF predicts that Spain will close this year with a price increase of 2.4%, one tenth more than the euro zone, while in 2025 it will be 2.2% in Spain and 2% in the eurozone, to coincide at 1.9% at the end of 2026.

Starting next year, the expected inflation rate for Spain will be slightly lower than the eurozone average, with 1.8% at the end of each of the three years until 2029, while for the eurozone prices will rise by 2% in 2027, 1.9% in 2028 and 2% at the end of 2029.

Despite this better evolution of growth and the favorable price differential estimated by the IMF, the unemployment rate in Spain will remain well above the euro zone average throughout the horizon projected by the IMF.

Thus, while unemployment in Spain is expected to drop to 11.6% this year and 11.3% next year, compared to the 6.5% and 6.4% estimated respectively for the eurozone, the IMF He does not expect unemployment to drop below 11% during the following years.

Regarding public finances, the IMF forecasts suggest that the Spanish deficit, which will drop this year to 3.1% of GDP from 3.6% in 2023, will remain at 3% or slightly above each year until at least 2029, rebounding to 3.2% of GDP in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, to relax to 3% in the following years.

Likewise, public debt, which this year will be slightly above 106% of GDP, will drop next year to slightly below 105% and will remain that way until the last two years of the projection horizon, 2028 and 2029. , drop to 104.6% and 104.2%, respectively.