Military and diplomats do not see a military aggression by Morocco as feasible to seize Ceuta and Melilla

They agree that the Spanishness of the two autonomous cities is protected by the Constitution

MADRID, 21 Jun. (EUROPA PRESS) -

A military aggression by Morocco to seize Ceuta and Melilla is practically ruled out in the current context since the international community does not tolerate aggressive wars, as has been seen with the one in Ukraine, and since Spain would have the support of NATO in their defense, according to what several experts have agreed to point out during the presentation of a report on the two autonomous cities prepared by the 'think-tank' Europa Ciudadana.

In the opinion of Admiral Juan Rodríguez Garat, "at this moment, in this world situation" a military aggression by Morocco cannot be expected, which would also put the international community against it, since the United Nations Charter defends the territorial integrity of states.

"Russia can afford to turn against almost the entire international community because it has the right of veto in the UN Security Council and 6,000 nuclear warheads," said the former admiral of the Fleet and professor at the War College. Naval. "Morocco cannot enter with blood and fire (...) because failure is assured not only because of its military capacity," he stated, "but because the international community does not view aggressive wars well."

"The problem is in the hybrid war", he has admitted, pointing to actions in which the authorship is not clear, among which he has cited the "manipulation of immigration", in order to "cause problems" for the Spanish Government " so that I end up giving in."

"It happened in its day with the Green March", he pointed out, stressing that the situation in Ceuta and Melilla "is very different" although this type of "hybrid actions will put us in trouble". Admiral Rodríguez Garat has defended that in general, governments "when they have problems to hide" or that they cannot face, "try to unite the people against an external enemy", hinting that this is what Rabat is doing with Spain.

For his part, Lieutenant General Francisco Gan Pampols has indicated that for now Morocco moves in the so-called "grey zone", although what happened with the islet of Perejil in 2002 was a "low intensity action" that had its reaction, and has pointed out that this type of action "can only be counteracted by the mechanisms of the rule of law".

In turn, Javier Rupérez, a diplomat and former ambassador to the United States and to NATO, has called attention to the need not to give in to blackmailers, among whom he has first cited Hitler with the Sudetenland and then Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

"Since there was no forceful and dissuasive response from the West, they thought that the entire field was oregano," he stated, thus explaining the "criminal invasion of Ukraine." "We should all be aware of potential blackmailers and learn the art of deterrence to prevent unwarranted attacks," she said.

Rupérez has also referred to the Perejil incident, "a clear attempt at blackmail that was responded to forcefully." "It was a minor but significant case" from which we must learn since "what those who practice this sport do is start with the Crimea, Parsley or the Sudetenland."

Both the military and the diplomat have expressed the opinion that Spain would have the support of NATO in the event of a Moroccan military aggression in the two autonomous cities, despite the fact that they are not expressly mentioned in the North Atlantic Treaty. . In the end, Admiral Rodríguez has said, everything depends on a "political decision" by the allies, who one by one must decide how to support the country that is being attacked.

The important thing about belonging to NATO, Rupérez has stressed, is that it is a "defensive and dissuasive organization like it has never existed in history." "No one has ever dared to attack a member country" with the exception of the 9/11 attacks in the United States, he stressed. "The deterrence is blunt, brutal and continues to work," he stressed.

The three experts have agreed that the Spanishness of Ceuta and Melilla is beyond any doubt -- "it is so obvious that it is a bit excessive to reaffirm it," said Rupérez -- and they have referred to the Constitution as the best guarantee that This continues to be the case, even if in the long run there may be governments for independence in both autonomous cities or those that defend Moroccan theses.

The sovereignty of Ceuta and Melilla "is a right of the Spaniards" that is included in article 2 of the Constitution, which stipulates that Spain is "indivisible", recalled Admiral Rodríguez Garat, warning that the only way to change it would be with the agreement of all Spaniards and reforming the Constitution, something in which Lieutenant General Gan Pampols has agreed. "Today (the Constitution) is a tool of extraordinary solidity."

As regards the turn of the Government with respect to the Sahara, they have not wanted to enter into assessing the reasons that led them to support the Moroccan autonomy plan. In this sense, Admiral Rodríguez Garat has been convinced that it was not the "defense of Ceuta and Melilla" while Rupérez has trusted that it was not the result of "any type of pressure or blackmail but rather the recognition of all mutual interests which are many".

However, he stressed that there are still many "pending and important questions" to be resolved, starting with whether it was the decision of the United States, with Donald Trump as president, to recognize the Moroccan nature of the Sahara.

Likewise, the diplomat has also maintained that the use of the Pegasus system should be investigated, "apparently", by the Moroccan intelligence services to spy on the President of the Government, as well as "indications of electoral fraud" during the 28M elections in Melilla "by a political formation that apparently has a strong Moroccan influence", in reference to the theft of votes by mail and the alleged involvement of the Coalición Por Melilla (CPM).