Capital Radio's investment barometer opts for debt and foresees two rate cuts in Europe and the US

MADRID, 4 Ene. (EUROPA PRESS) -

Capital Radio launched its second investment barometer this Monday, carried out with the participation of around twenty managers, and concluded that the main investment option is now in fixed income (70.8%), which reflects a change in trend compared to the first barometer - launched last September - when international equities came in first place with the support of 57% of those surveyed and now only reaches 29%.

For their part, a majority of asset managers believe that there will be only two cuts in interest rates, both in the United States (considered this way by 50.1%) and in Europe (58.3%), while Now the reference rates are, respectively, at 5.25-5.5% and 4.5%.

In fact, last night, with the European market already closed, the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) were released, in which investors are looking for clues regarding the central bank's next movements. .

At the macroeconomic level, the study has pointed out that a scenario of a slowdown in the economy - without reaching recession - is drawn as the most probable in the United States, with 50% support among those surveyed, while 37.5% % believe that there will be a slight recession in the North American economy and only 12.5% ​​see a hard landing.

For its part, the main scenario contemplated in Europe is that of a mild recession (66.7%), ahead of an economic slowdown (20.8%) and a hard landing (12.5%).

Linked to the clear preference for fixed income (70.8%) to the detriment of variable income (29%), 65% of managers assure that they will increase their exposure to fixed income in 2024, while 34.8% He does not plan to increase his bet on this asset.

For its part, the barometer has reported that monetary funds, which have been "the big protagonists in 2023" (data from the Inverco employers' association show that assets almost doubled, up to 10,394 million) and the main investment category chosen In the previous Capital Radio barometer, they are now relegated, since 4.1% of the managers indicate that they barely see greater potential in this segment.

In contrast, 54% of those questioned see potential in 'investment grade' bonds (higher credit quality at the cost of a lower return yield) and almost 42% consider the same with respect to 'high yield' bonds (higher performance at the cost of assuming greater risk).

Within equities, technology (64.5%) has dethroned health (18.3%) as the main sector bet for firms, while behind both would be the industrial sector, with a rate of almost 13%, and 'utilities' (companies that offer public services such as electricity, gas, water or highways), an asset that would lead the stock market bets for only 4% of those surveyed.