AD's pyrrhic victory leaves the governance of Portugal in the hands of the extreme right

MADRID, 11 Mar. (EUROPA PRESS) -

Portugal has turned to the right in these last elections. Waiting for the vote abroad to confirm the pyrrhic victory of the Democratic Alliance (AD), with the socialists already declaring that they are opposition, the great winner of the night has been the extreme right of Chega, which celebrates having broken the two-party system and requires negotiating to form a government.

This Sunday's elections seem far from guaranteeing that "stability" for which the president of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, decided to call them early after the surprise resignation of António Costa due to a corruption case that he wrongly pointed out to him.

Hostage of his campaign promises, the leader of AD, Luís Montenegro, denied on several occasions that he would agree with Chega to obtain the keys to the São Bento Palace and has once again appealed during the last election night to the responsibility of the rest of the political formations to ensure governance.

Based on this premise of rejection of the extreme right, although it is not excluded from the dialogue that it wants to maintain with all political forces, there would not be a parliamentary majority capable of generating a government in the long term.

It will not be until March 20 when the results of the foreign vote are known. Until then, doubts will remain in a Montenegro that, despite being convinced that he will be the next prime minister, has not yet given details of possible governance alternatives.

André Ventura, head of Chega, has also appealed to the duty that Montenegro should have with the "clear majority" that the conservative forces have achieved in these legislative elections and has warned that it would be irresponsible not to reach an agreement.

With the power that comes from having been the third most supported force in these elections, and one of the two, together with the minority Livre, that has obtained the most votes compared to the previous ones, Ventura has reproached Montenegro for its campaign promise that closes its doors. doors of a government, in which he insists on being.

The extreme right has the key to governability, whether or not it enters a hypothetical government and Ventura knows the situation in which Montenegro finds itself, who would have difficulty politically explaining his change of opinion.

The other possible scenario is a hypothetical conservative coalition with the Liberal Initiative, the fourth most voted force with just over 5 percent of the votes. Its leader, Rui Rocha, has promised that they will be "responsible" in all those scenarios that arise during the following days.

Rarely has a rise like that of Chega been seen in the history of Portuguese democracy, which as the third most voted force has grown dizzyingly to triple the number of votes in these latest legislative elections.

Ventura has been a few votes away from achieving the feat achieved in 1979 by the communist Álvaro Cunhal, who led the United People's Alliance coalition in what were the third elections after the Carnation Revolution.

Chega has achieved 1.1 million votes in these elections, which means 18.1 percent of the total and 48 deputies - one more than those achieved by Cunhal in 1979 -, compared to the 12 he obtained in 2022, thus being one of the forces of the European extreme right that has grown the most parliamentaryly.

While waiting to know the results abroad, barely 1 percent separates the AD and the Socialist Party (PS). Although this last formation has publicly assumed its opposition status for the coming years, the parties further to the left still cling to the possibility of agreeing to govern.

In the event that Chega continues to be ostracized by the rest of the formations, the coalition of socialists and the rest of the forces on the left plus the animalists would obtain 91 deputies, four more than those that would form the AD and the liberals, but far from of the majority granted by 116 deputies.

However, the general secretary of the socialists, Pedro Nuno Santos, already enforced his campaign promises last election night, in case of defeat, not to hinder a possible conservative government as long as he did not resort to Chega.

The hypothesis of a new kind of 'geringonça' like the one that allowed António Costa to govern in 2015 is more of a desire outside the socialist ranks than a possible certainty, since this, according to Santos, would be a call to the forces of right to join.