Prudence prevails in NATO countries waiting to clarify what happened in Poland

Major powers avoid pointing fingers at Russia, though they do link the incident to the escalation in Ukraine

The explosion registered on Tuesday at a farm in Poland and the consequent death of two people has raised all the alerts in NATO, although for now the messages from the leaders of allied countries revolve around prudence. Neither the Polish government nor any major power has directly blamed Russia, beyond linking this dangerous incident to escalating attacks on neighboring Ukraine.

The Ukrainian war had already crossed borders in recent months, but never before had a projectile hit the territory of the Atlantic Alliance. The organization's statutes contemplate in its article 5 the collective defense clause, which involves all member states in the event of an attack against one of them, but Poland is currently considering invoking article 4 and opening consultations.

The Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, urgently summoned the security leadership, but late in the day he appealed for "calm" and "prudence" while waiting to clarify the origin of the projectiles that fell in Przewodow, near from the border with Ukraine, and that they have taken the lives of two people. Polish President Andrzej Duda admitted that there was no conclusive evidence.

Ukraine, on the other hand, did directly point to Russia through the mouths of its main officials, including the president, Volodimir Zelensky, who appealed for "action" after the "Russian missile attack." Not surprisingly, the incident was part of the largest wave of bombardments launched by Russia on Ukraine since the start of the invasion in February, with around a hundred missiles fired on Tuesday alone.

The Baltic countries also quickly joined the Ukrainian thesis pointing to Russia, but not the rest of the NATO members, who after an intense round of contacts both with Poland and among themselves have seemed to conclude that, at this point, there is no can infer nothing clear as to the authorship of the shots.

The incident has surprised part of the heads of State and Government of the Alliance in Bali, where the G20 summit has been held, and the meetings and calls have been constant this Wednesday. Common support for Ukraine and criticism of the Russian offensive, but prudence as to what it would mean to raise political tension to thresholds that had not yet been reached.

The president of the United States, Joe Biden, one of the first to speak to Warsaw when it was still early in the morning in Indonesia, has acknowledged that it is "improbable" that the projectile that fell in Poland was fired by Russia. "There is preliminary information that casts doubt on that," he said.

"Extremely prudent" has been shown by the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who in his final appearance before the media at the G20 has acknowledged that the projectiles that fell on a day that, otherwise, still "cannot be attributed" to anyone it was "terrible" for Ukraine.

For his part, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has opted to "exhaustively clarify" how the explosion occurred, while the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, has advocated "establishing the facts" before going beyond, hours before a meeting of allied countries at the ambassadorial level.

The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who has spoken with Morawiecki, has affirmed that it is time to "verify the facts and consider the next steps", although she has added: "It is a confirmation of the gravity and the consequences of the Russian aggression against Ukraine".

From Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the least belligerent EU leader with Moscow, has pointed out that it is time for "a calm and complete investigation." "One thing is certain: Hungary is firmly on Ukraine's side," he stressed, hours after speaking to his Polish counterpart.

RUSSIA DISMARKS

Moscow's version goes by alleging that everything is a "provocation" to escalate the conflict to a new level involving NATO. Former President Dimitri Medvedev, one of Russia's most belligerent leaders, has said on Twitter that the event in Poland proves that "the West is approaching a world war."

The Russian Ministry of Defense has affirmed this Tuesday that the projectile fallen on Polish soil corresponds to an S-300 anti-aircraft defense system launched by Ukraine.

The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one of the few who maintains relatively frequent contacts with Russia, has assured that he has no reason to distrust the arguments offered by Moscow in recent hours and has pointed from Bali to the possibility of "a technical error".

Apart from NATO, the Chinese government has once again dodged any signaling with a generic message, to "all parties", to act calmly" and "containment", in the words of the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao None, according to official media.

APPEALS FROM kyiv

The G20 summit ended with a stronger message of support for Ukraine than expected, although it was not a joint statement given that Russia is still part of this group. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov left the summit on Tuesday night, so he has not responded 'in situ' about the incident in Poland.

In kyiv, however, everything indicates that the event, regardless of its circumstances, will serve to insist on the demands for greater support for its international partners, especially when the wave of attacks on Tuesday again caused fatalities and cuts in the electricity supply in large cities, including kyiv.

Defense Minister Oleksi Resnikov recalled that kyiv has been calling for a no-fly zone for months now, "because the sky has no borders", nor for "uncontrolled missiles". Several senior Ukrainian officials have also recalled that Ukraine's future depends on fully integrating into the EU and continuing to strengthen ties with NATO, from whose members it demands military support.