The second round of the legislative elections in France: uncertainty and difficulties for a Macron who loses support

Cabinet members risk their position if they fail to renew their seats

The alliance led by Mélenchon puts the president and his allies in trouble after a first vote with very low participation

MADRID, 19 Jun. (EUROPA PRESS) -

France has a new appointment with the polls this Sunday to put an end to legislative elections in which the president, Emmanuel Macron, and his coalition face uncertainty and the difficulties of a possible loss of support, an issue that puts endanger their absolute majority in the National Assembly.

After a first round in which the left, agglomerated under the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) alliance, has obtained good results, the presidential group seems to be in a bind, without it being clear that it is capable of combining the necessary support. to preserve his power and keep the Cabinet intact.

Macron has already warned his ministers: if they do not renew their seats they will be out of the Government. This endangers the fifteen senior officials who are running for a seat and have failed to secure it during the first round of elections.

Among the figures who are playing the most this Sunday are the new Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, the Minister of Solidarity, Autonomy and Persons with Disabilities, Damien Abad, who faces several accusations of sexual abuse, the Minister of Public Administration, Stanislas Guerini, and that of Ecological Transition, Amélie Montchalin, who did not obtain good results in the first round.

The left-wing bloc, which continues to consolidate itself despite clearly confusing results, has fallen just a few tenths behind Macron's Juntos coalition, although the country's three main forces celebrated their own victory.

Mélenchon and his allies have also accused the Ministry of the Interior of "manipulating" the results, considering that there are at least three cases that arouse controversy after the Ministry did not count as Nupes candidates some politicians who have insisted in which they will join the parliamentary bloc in the event of victory. Among them are, fundamentally, the candidates from the overseas territories and Corsica.

Even so, Mélenchon's alliance has obtained 25.66 percent of the support and is hot on the heels of the presidential group, which has won 25.75 percent of the vote, according to official data that points to a second very close turn and that calls into question the continuity of Macron's majority in Parliament.

Behind is the far-right National Group, which won 18.68 percent of the vote and will be left out of the second round in most constituencies that will be decided this Sunday.

Although the cordon sanitaire in front of the formation of Marine Le Pen seems to be maintained, the main political forces are now exercising greater restraint in the face of the second round for fear of losing support in the constituencies in which the National Group faces different candidates.

However, after a week in which many consider that the Government has been unable to give clear instructions when it comes to voting and has been somewhat equidistant, Borne has clarified that the Executive's position is clear: "there is no to give not a single voice to the extreme right".

Thus, he has described Nupes as an "alliance of circumstance" in which "there are Republican candidates." "We support those, (...) but we do not support the candidates of France Rebellious who do not share republican values, who question the role of our police forces," he said in comments collected by the newspaper 'Le Figaro '.

With these words he has referred to the controversial statements made several weeks ago by Mélenchon himself against the Police, whom he has accused of "killing". The opposition leader has also called a police union a "fractious group" for its defense of the agents who shot and killed a woman inside her vehicle after she fled.

Participation has played a fundamental role in the elections last weekend, when there was a historical abstention of more than 52 percent, above the data collected in 2017, already very low.

This highlights the "apathy" of the French electorate, which according to polls no longer trusts the head of state in the same way but does not hold out hope that the left-wing alliance will have greater success where the current government has failed. .

Surveys suggest that it is young people who have been particularly affected by this and, according to data from the Ministry of the Interior, at least 70 percent of those under 35 did not go to the polls last weekend, which which favors Macron's coalition, accustomed to having an electorate made up largely of older people.

However, from the Government they have lamented the low turnout in the first electoral round and have invited "reflection" despite the fact that the electoral appointment, which takes place shortly after the presidential ones, tends to benefit the party that emerged victorious from the previous elections.

In this sense, Macron has claimed a "solid" majority for the parties that support him, appealing to the "higher interest of the nation" and has insisted that "nothing will be worse than adding French disorder to world disorder."

Although polls of voting intentions predict that Macron's alliance will win the majority of the constituencies at stake, the president needs to win 289 deputies to maintain an absolute majority, something that now seems unlikely given the consolidation of the left.

In the last throes of the campaign, Mélenchon has taken the opportunity to equate Macron's trip to Moldova and Romania as a metaphor for those who leave "when the ship sinks". For him, the president's attitude shows that he thought the vote would be a mere "administrative procedure" to continue governing.

The French head of state, however, has justified his decision and has stressed that he is also the head of the Army, so the visit was "necessary", especially given the progress of the war in Ukraine.

This has not prevented Mélenchon from showing his confidence in the legislative results, which is why he has said that he is sure that he will receive a call from Macron after the results are known. "On Monday morning I will be at home and I will wait for the phone call from the President of the Republic to ask me to form a government," he assured in an interview with the BFMTV network.

With these words, the leader of France Insumisa does not hide his desire to become prime minister, although this generates a coexistence between the president and the head of government of different political persuasions.

This cohabitation has occurred on three other occasions in the Fifth French Republic, the last one between 1997 and 2002, and 'a priori' the reduction of presidential mandates from seven to five years makes it difficult for it to happen again.

In the event that it occurs, Macron and his allies would be forced to join forces to carry out their projects and regulations, either by forming a government coalition or by collecting the necessary votes each time.