The OECD sees signs of stabilization in the Spanish economy, in the face of a general loss of momentum

MADRID, 13 Jun. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The composite index of leading indicators (CLI), which serves the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as an 'economic thermometer' to detect changes in trend, suggests a loss of growth momentum in advanced economies in the coming months, against which the Spanish economy shows signs of stabilization.

"Growth may lose momentum in the OECD area as a whole over the next six to nine months," according to the latest CLI indicators for the richest countries' think tank, which support the view presented last week by the OECD, which revised down its global growth forecasts due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the continuous interruptions of the supply chain.

In this way, the latest data from the OECD stands at 99.88 points, compared to 99.99 the previous month, which results in a monthly decline of 0.11 points and 0.90 in one year, including a deterioration in the reading of the euro zone, whose CLI stands at 99.67, compared to 99.85 in the previous month, which suggests a loss of growth momentum in the region.

Thus, CLIs are now at or below long-term trend levels in most major OECD economies, "pushed down by high inflation and low consumer confidence" , so the indicators "point to a loss of growth momentum in the euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy, and also in the United Kingdom and Canada."

In contrast, CLIs continue to point to stable growth in the United States and Japan.

In the case of Spain, the decline in the CLI is limited to seven hundredths compared to the previous month, to 99.74 points, which represents a decrease of 0.41 points compared to the level of a year earlier.

However, despite the continuation of the contraction, "Spain's CLI shows tentative signs of stabilization," an OECD spokesman told Europa Press.

In this sense, the negative contributions of services and the registration of new cars are partially offset by the expansions recorded in construction, given expectations about future employment, and manufacturing.

Also, "it should be noted that the indicator of consumer confidence and share price remained substantially stable."

The OECD has warned that ongoing uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine and Covid-19 are resulting in higher-than-usual fluctuations in CLI components, so "they should continue to be interpreted with care and their magnitude be considered as an indication of the strength of the signal and not as a measure of the growth of economic activity".