The IEA foresees a slowdown in the growth of electricity demand due to the economic slowdown and high prices

MADRID, 20 Jul. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The growth of global electricity demand will slow down substantially in 2022, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase in consumption of 2.4%, compared to the 6% increase observed in 2021, as a consequence of the impact on demand from the slowing economy and high energy prices.

Global electricity demand is expected to grow 2.4% in 2022, after last year's 6% increase, aligning with its average growth rate over the five years prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. the agency in a report.

The IEA highlights the impact on demand related to inflation and sanitary measures in China, which weighed down industrial production and increased the tension in supply chains, since the industry is responsible for more than 40% of the final demand for electricity, so the slowdown in economic activity has led to a decline in consumption, with the exception of India, where unusually high temperatures in the second quarter of 2022 pushed electricity demand to record levels.

Likewise, for 2023, the agency anticipates growth rates in global electricity demand similar to those forecast for 2022, in line with a similar global economic growth rate, although it warns of the existence of great uncertainties linked to interconnected factors such as the economic growth, the volatility of high fossil fuel prices and ongoing health measures related to Covid-19.

According to the IEA regional forecasts, the growth of electricity demand in Asia Pacific will be around 3.4% in 2022, which represents a downward revision of more than one percentage point since the beginning of the year, while, for 2023 , expects demand growth close to 4%, offsetting part of the slowdown in 2022.

In the case of China, in absolute terms the fastest growing country from 2016 to 2021, demand in the first five months of 2022 exhibited a growth of only 0.5% compared to the same period in 2021, while in India, the second fastest growing country in recent years, has revised its forecast for 2022 upwards to 7% from the previous 6%.

In the Americas, IEA projections point to demand growth moderating to almost 2% in 2022 and falling below 1% in 2023, after exceptional growth of around 2.4% in 2021. These forecasts are slightly higher for 2022 and lower for 2023 than those of last January, largely due to the rapid economic recovery in the United States, where he expects consumption to grow 2% in 2022, when he previously anticipated a stalemate.

In the case of Europe, the agency anticipates that the demand will increase below 1%, less than half of the value expected at the beginning of the year, warning that the possible scarcity of fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, and a greater Slower economic growth could further reduce demand growth.

"For 2023, the outlook is quite uncertain," adds the IEA, noting that if energy markets continue to be tense and without economic growth, the increase in electricity demand could remain at a level similar to that of 2022.

"The world is in the midst of the first truly global energy crisis, triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the power sector is one of the worst affected," said Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA. "This is especially evident in Europe, which is experiencing serious turmoil in the energy market," he added.

On the other hand, the report warns that, due to high gas prices and supply constraints, coal is replacing natural gas for power generation in markets with spare coal-fired capacity, particularly in those markets. European countries seeking to end their dependence on Russian gas imports.

Thus, to secure energy supplies after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, some European countries have delayed coal phase-out plans and lifted previously imposed restrictions on this fuel.

“Globally, coal use for power is expected to rise slightly in 2022,” as growth in Europe is balanced by contractions in China, due to strong growth in renewables and only a modest increase in energy consumption. demand for electricity, and in the United States, due to limitations in coal-fired power plant supply and capacity.

Likewise, the IEA anticipates gas-fired power generation to fall 2.6%, as declines in Europe and South America outpace growth in North America and the Middle East.

As for renewables, they are expected to be the fastest growing source of electricity supply in 2022, with production increasing by more than 10% in 2022.

"This is the highest value recorded and raises the share of renewable energy in the supply mix to 30%," highlights the agency, which by 2023 anticipates that global growth in renewable energy will exceed 8% and exceed the additional demand for electricity.