The economic slowdown should not impact the results of Spanish banks, according to Accuracy

He believes that the impact of the new tax will be between 1,339 million and 1,478 million euros

MADRID, 1 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The Spanish banking business continued to grow steadily in the second quarter, with an increase in volumes in all lines of business, widening margins and higher income from commissions that improve the data for the first quarter, and would face uncertainties macroeconomic "without doubts about its resilience".

This is one of the conclusions of the new analysis carried out by Accuracy, which maintains that the economic slowdown should not impact the positive results recorded by banks in recent quarters.

The firm has carried out an analysis of the current state and prospects of the Spanish banking sector from a macroeconomic point of view and the financial results of some of the most relevant entities during the second quarter of 2022.

The report compares aspects such as market capitalization, margins, profitability, solvency and credit risk of six Spanish entities: Santander, BBVA, Caixabank, Bankinter, Banco Sabadell and Unicaja, both in Spain and in the different countries in which they have a presence

By magnitudes, Accuracy indicates that the growth in margins is widespread among Spanish banks, thanks to the rise in rates by the ECB and the rise in the Euribor. Banks with high exposure abroad have seen a higher increase in their margins as rates have been raised faster in Brazil or the UK than in the eurozone.

In addition, default rates continue to improve, with an average in the sector slightly above 4%, while there is a decrease in the volume of loans under special supervision of the banks analyzed. Accuracy affirms that this improvement allows entities to face with a "position of strength" possible increases in defaults in the coming months.

Regarding market capitalization, during the last year, the growth of Bankinter (38.4%), Sabadell (31.0%) and CaixaBank (26.9%) stands out. Santander and BBVA face a decrease above two digits, with the evolution of the share price of both entities being similar. In this regard, Accuracy maintains that the outlook for the coming months is neutral due to the sum of factors driving prices up --the ECB's rate hikes-- and others that put downward pressure --the new bank tax announced by the government.

In the short term, the report indicates that Spanish banks will have to navigate the environment of macroeconomic uncertainty by anticipating the typical problems of a slowdown in the economy, including a lower volume in their loan portfolios, an increase in the default rate or a drop in commissions, elements that may affect the income statements in the coming quarters.

On the other hand, Accuracy recalls the underlying trends that affect the banking industry and that require the mobilization of a large number of resources and the acquisition of new capacities: the inclusion of climate change risks in their decision-making processes, the challenge of digitization and disruption of integrated banking and decentralized finance.

Finally, the analysis reflects the need for banks to face these challenges from a competitive position "decreased" by the new banking tax. In this sense, the firm believes that the impact of the new tax would range between 1,339 million and 1,478 million euros in the coming years.

Caixabank would be the bank with the greatest impact, with an amount of 455 to 500 million euros --34%), due to its great concentration in the Spanish market. For Santander, it would have an impact of 24%, that is, between 320 and 350 million euros, and for BBVA, 20%, between 260 and 290 million euros. However, for these two banks it will represent around 1% of their total gross margin thanks to their geographical diversification.

Sabadell, Bankinter and Unicaja, for their part, together contribute 24% of the total of the six banks analysed, between 320 and 350 million euros. In Accuracy's base scenario, the collection between the six banks represents 94% of the total estimated to be collected by the government.

However, the director of the firm, Alberto Valle, affirms that the data in the report show that the Spanish banking sector "strengthened its financial position again over the last year", which would allow it to "face short-term uncertainties and underlying trends from a position of relative strength".

"A very likely slowdown in the economy should not jeopardize very positive results in 2022," concludes Valle.