Senegal holds legislative tomorrow with the balance of power at stake between the Government and a budding opposition

President Sall could see his intentions for a third term in 2024 disrupted due to the emergence of Ousmane Sonko

MADRID, 30 Jul. (EUROPA PRESS) -

Senegal is holding legislative elections this coming Sunday understood as a test to gauge the strength of the head of state, Macky Sall, against the emerging opposition led by his great rival, Ousmane Sonko, two years before the presidential elections.

Sonko's grand opposition coalition, Yewwi Askan Wi (Free the People), appears weakened but far from gone. The alliance, which includes Sonko's Pastef (Patriots of Senegal for Ethics, Work and Fraternity) party, as well as former President Abdoulaye Wade's Wallu Senegal (Save Senegal) party, appears without a titular national list for reasons "technical", argues the Government, but this does not mean that the almost unknown substitutes do not have an opportunity to make progress.

"Like it or not, there is a 'Sonko phenomenon'," a political observer told Radio France Internationale about the figure of this former tax inspector, third in the 2019 presidential election, who denounces having been the target of a campaign of political persecution by the Government after being accused of rape, without any evidence according to the opponent, in a case still pending trial.

The accusation against Sonko unleashed in 2021 one of the worst waves of violence recorded in years in the country; one that left seven dead and some 240 injured when hundreds of supporters learned of his arrest when he went to court to give evidence. Similar protests occurred this year when the Constitutional Council invalidated the coalition's list of incumbents "for formal reasons."

In the midst of all this tension is Sall's intention, not yet confirmed, to run for a third term in 2024; a decision whose critics consider unconstitutional. Any loss by his supporters in Sunday's vote could upset those plans. "These elections are a warm-up", explains to RFI, researcher Mamadou Lamine Sarr. "The entire political debate," he adds, "is monopolized by 2024."

In addition, frustrations over economic difficulties caused by the coronavirus pandemic have been fueled by increases in fuel and food prices linked to the war in Ukraine.

Thus, in the face of growing discontent, opposition parties expect the ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition to see its parliamentary majority fall below 125 of the 165 seats it currently holds in the National Assembly.

"Citizens have openly expressed their weariness in the face of high prices and the high cost of living, poverty and lack of jobs," Political Science professor Moussa Diaw of Gaston Berger University told Al Jazeera.

In the midst of this panorama, Senegal goes to the polls to elect the members of a National Assembly who will be elected according to a system that combines proportional representation with national lists for 53 legislators and majority voting in the departments of the country for another 97.

These legislative elections will mark the departure of the president of the National Assembly since 2012: Moustapha Niasse, a pillar of political life since Léopold Sédar Senghor, the first president of the Republic of Senegal.

In addition, it should be remembered that the vote, in principle, will be followed by the arrival of a new Prime Minister. The position, removed by Sall in 2019 and then reinstated in November 2021, is still vacant. The election of the next head of government could be a first clear indication of the president's intentions for 2024.