Lula continues to lead in the polls, but Bolsonaro surpasses him for the first time in some sectors

MADRID, 6 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and former president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is eight points above Jair Bolsonaro in the first poll ahead of the second round on October 30, although the far-right reduces disapproval of his government and surpasses him for the first time among certain groups of voters.

It is among white men that Bolsonaro has taken a slight advantage over Lula. Thus, although the margin of error could mean a technical tie, for now, according to the Ipec survey, 47 percent of this electorate would vote for the Brazilian president compared to 45 who would support the PT candidate.

It is the first time that he has put himself ahead of Lula among this segment of the population. As the appointment with the polls last Sunday approached, Bolsonaro has been recovering lost ground, although he has always been behind his rival, who obtained six million more votes than him in the first round.

However, Lula continues to lead also in this latest poll, thanks to the better image he projects in almost all groups of voters. She thus achieves 51 percent of the intention to vote compared to 43 percent for Bolsonaro.

On the other hand, the Brazilian electorate is clear about the meaning of their vote, as stated by 92 percent of those surveyed, since only 8 percent say they could still change it. 40 percent would not vote for Lula at all, while 50 percent think the same about Bolsonaro.

Where it does not seem that things are going to change at the moment is in the predilection that Lula obtains among racialized voters and those with lower incomes. The PT party has the intention to vote of 55 percent among the voters of the first group, as well as among 64 percent of the second estate.

For their part, only 39 percent of blacks and 29 percent of those with lower incomes, around one minimum wage (192 euros), would vote for Bolsonaro's re-election within three weeks.

It is in the group of voters with high incomes, more than five minimum wages (about 960 upwards) where the extreme rightist would obtain more support, a circumstance that has been repeated in previous polls. 65 percent would give him their vote, compared to 30 percent who would bet on Lula. In middle income, Bolsonaro also prevailed by a little, with 49 percent compared to 44 percent.

Lula also wins among the female and male electorate, with 53 percent and 49 percent, respectively, compared to 40 percent of women and 45 percent of men who would support Bolsonaro. Throughout the campaign, the president's team has tried unsuccessfully to turn around the bad image he has among female voters, even relying on the image of the first lady, Michele Bolsonaro.

Among Catholics, Lula is ahead with 59 percent compared to 36 percent for his rival, who does have a better reception among evangelical voters, 61 percent prefer him to the PT, with 31 percent.

In territorial distribution, Lula has a wide advantage in the northeast, while Bolsonaro is preferred in the south, north and center west. In the southeast region, where the three largest electoral centers are located -- Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo -- there is a technical tie.