Jihadist violence multiplies by four since 2019 in the Sahel, the main scenario in Africa

The departure of the last French soldiers from Mali opens a new phase in the fight against terrorism in the region

MADRID, 21 Ago. (EUROPA PRESS) -

Violence related to jihadist groups in Africa has multiplied by three in the last decade, with the Sahel already the main scene of action by these organizations, which have quadrupled their actions since 2019 in this part of the continent.

This is clear from the latest data published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), a 'think-tank' dependent on the Pentagon, which highlights that if the violent actions of jihadist groups have doubled throughout the continent since 2019, in the case of Mali, Burkina Faso and western Niger they have done so by four.

As a result, in 2021 the Sahel ousted Somalia from the ranking as the most virulent jihadist scene on the continent. Specifically, of the 6,256 violent incidents recorded in Africa by the ACSS --21% more than in 2020--, 2,612 took place in the Sahel, where the threat is already spreading to the south and in 2021 20 incidents were recorded in Benin, Ivory Coast and Togo.

These acts resulted in more than 7,000 fatalities --almost half of those recorded in the entire continent--. Of these, more than a quarter (1,847) were the result of attacks against civilians, which represents an increase of 67% compared to the previous year. In 2022, the trend not only continues but has intensified, according to the ACLED project, which monitors political violence in the world.

This non-profit organization has recorded at least 1,900 events of political violence --mainly clashes between jihadist groups and security forces, as well as attacks and violence against civilians as well as demonstrations-- that have resulted in 5,450 deaths in the first half of the year.

ACLED has recorded some of the deadliest attacks against the civilian population in the last decade in these first six months, the work not only of terrorist groups but also of local security forces, which in the specific case of Mali now have the support of Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group. In total, more civilians have been killed than were recorded in all of 2021.

According to Héni Nsaibia, an expert in this region from ACLED, "2022 is on track to become the deadliest year in both Burkina Faso and Mali since the crisis in the Sahel began more than a decade ago."

The intensity of the violence continues to be greater today in Burkina Faso, where the jihadist groups expanded after beginning their activity in northern Mali in 2012, although this year Mali has regained first place in terms of the number of victims , while in the case of Niger they seem to be on the decline, this expert specifies in an article.

The Support Group for Islam and Muslims (JNIM), the affiliate of Al Qaeda in the Sahel, is today "the most active and deadly actor in the Sahel, especially in Burkina Faso and Mali", underlines Nsaibia, which highlights the more than 40 attacks that the group commanded by Iyad ag Ghali has committed against the UN Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) since last October, which have left 20 dead, or the 400 attacks carried out in Burkina Faso this year, and representing almost 70% of the total.

The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) --recently renamed the Islamic State Sahel-- also operates in the region. The Islamic State affiliate is less active than its Al Qaeda rival but much more deadly, especially when it comes to the civilian population. According to ACSS data, 63% of civilian victims are linked to the actions of this group despite the fact that these only account for 30% of the total.

Both Mali and Burkina Faso have military governments at the head which, among the arguments they put forward for their respective riots, pointed to the persistent jihadist violence. For now, neither seems to have managed to improve the situation, especially in the Malian case, where the initial coup d'état took place in August 2020, but neither in Burkina Faso, where it took place last January.

In an interview granted to the magazine 'CTC Sentinel', the coordinator of the UN team that supervises sanctions against Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, Edmund Fitton-Brown, until a few weeks ago, warns that neither of the two governments seems to have much reach beyond their respective capitals.

Likewise, after warning of the "contagion" that jihadist activity seems to be having towards the countries further south in the Gulf of Guinea, he draws attention to the fact that "in that part of the world there are many coups or attempts and there are the danger of ending up with destabilized countries in which terrorist groups are able to exert disproportionate influence".

In this context, France announced on August 15 that it had completed the withdrawal of the troops from the 'Barkhane' operation in Mali, a country in which it intervened in 2013 at the request of the then authorities to stop the advance of jihadist groups towards Bamako and with whose current government has recently maintained a sour pulse.

The Executive of Emmanuel Macron has made it clear that its commitment to the region, including the countries of the Gulf of Guinea, and with the fight against terrorism in particular, is maintained, which is why it is now going to make Niger the main base of its operations against the jihadists.

The French withdrawal "could create an opportunity for jihadist groups to use the country as a safe haven if the Malian forces and their Russian partners do not guarantee security in the rural areas of the country," warns Soufan Center, an organization specializing in issues of terrorism and security.

"If a terrorist group can seize territory that can be used as a launching pad for regional or transnational acts of terrorism, the pressure on Western governments to increase their anti-terrorist operations in the region will increase," he warns.

Precisely, the French exit from Mali supposes a security vacuum that affects the international missions to which it gave support -mainly logistical-, both to the UN mission and to the European training mission for Malian forces, EUTM Mali.

The latter has suspended training operations for months due to the lack of guarantees that the trained troops will not end up working with the Russian mercenaries and the forecast now is to reduce the contingent. This decision will affect Spain, which, with more than 500 troops deployed, is the main contributor to this mission, although for now the Government has not made a decision regarding a total withdrawal, as other countries such as Germany have decided.

As regards MINUSMA, its future is also in doubt, mainly due to disagreements with the ruling junta. At the end of July, the Malian authorities detained 49 Ivorian soldiers upon arrival at Bamako airport, accusing them of being "mercenaries" while the Ivory Coast claimed that their deployment was part of the UN mission. The soldiers have been accused this week of "attempted attack against State security."

For its part, Germany was forced last week to announce the suspension of participation in MINUSMA --to which it contributes more than 1,000 troops-- due to Bamako's refusal to authorize force rotation flights, although finally this Thursday these they could be resumed. Berlin for now has not raised its withdrawal from this mission.