Five polls predict a broad victory for the PP with up to 53 seats, close to the absolute majority

SEVILLA, 13 Jun. (EUROPA PRESS) -

Six polls this Monday point to a broad victory for the Popular Party, with up to 53 seats (the absolute majority is 55), in the regional elections next Sunday, June 19, in which the left would not manage to add to unseat the current president of the Junta de Andalucía and candidate for re-election, Juanma Moreno, who could even govern alone, without the need to incorporate Vox into the ranks of a future government. In 2018, the PP won 26 seats and 20.8% of the support.

In the survey carried out by GAD3 for the ABC newspaper, the PP would achieve up to 53 seats, with 41.2% of the votes, at a distance of more than fifteen points from its most direct competitor, the PSOE of Juan Espadas, which would add up to 33 seats (25.6% of the voters' support). This poll -as in the 40dB one for El País and IMOP Insights for El Confidencial- leaves Cs out of the Andalusian Parliament, a formation with which Moreno's PP has governed in coalition during the last legislature thanks to 21 seats.

The surveys of Andalucía Information (Social Data), Grupo Joly (DYM) and La Razón (NC Report) give between one and two seats to the formation of Juan Marín. In the case of the Joly Group, the survey even points out that the seats could be achieved in Cádiz and Málaga, not in the province of Seville, which is the one for which the candidate and current vice president of the Andalusian Government, Juan Marín, is running.

Both the ABC survey and the Grupo Joly survey agree that the popular ones would prevail for the first time in all the provinces, with the possibility indicated in the DYM survey of a tie in Jaén. In the case of Vox, the published polls suggest that the candidate for the Presidency of the Andalusian Government, Macarena Olona, ​​would win between 20 and 16 seats.

The coalition For Andalusia (Izquierda Unida, Podemos and Más País), with Inmaculada Nieto at the head, would add between ten and four seats and Adelante Andalucía would achieve between three and six seats according to four of the polls, with DYM for the Joly Group being the that better electoral expectations gives to the formation led by Teresa Rodríguez.

The last week of the electoral campaign starts with a participation that could be around 63%, six points above that registered in the last appointment with the polls, in December 2018. This increase in mobilization would be greater among the left-wing electorate, with up to thirteen points more than last May for the Por Andalucía coalition and six and a half points in the case of the Socialists.

In this line, the survey published by El Confidencial indicates that the PSOE de Espadas would only attract 22.4% of the support (28 and 30 seats), which is equivalent to 5.5 points below the registered mark in 2018 by Susana Díaz, when the Socialists lost the Government of the Junta after 37 years in San Telmo.

However, the improvement in participation would be insufficient to turn around the comfortable victory, and even bordering on the absolute majority, aimed at the PP, which could improve the results obtained by Javier Arenas in 2012, when 50 seats were reached.