Credit Suisse analysts maintain their bet on CaixaBank

MADRID, 7 Jun. (EUROPA PRESS) -

Credit Suisse has prepared a report on Spanish banking which highlights the moderate, but positive, evolution of credit, thanks especially to mortgage and corporate credit, and maintains its preference for CaixaBank, due to its good prospects in the face of the expected rate hikes.

The entity's analysts collect the data for the month of April published by the Bank of Spain that point to a "gradual and slow recovery" of credit. Thus, the volumes would still remain weak, although there would be a rebound in credit demand, especially in the mortgage and corporate segments, which supports a "relatively positive evolution" of credit in general.

Specifically, the data show that total credit increased by 0.8% year-on-year in April, compared to the 0.2% increase registered in March. Mortgages grew 1.7% compared to the same month in 2021, thanks to the increase in new production, which advanced 18%. In addition, loans to companies and SMEs increased by 0.3%, although new production "jumped" by 30.4% year-on-year, "recovering from the lows observed in 2021, when excess liquidity hindered the evolution of the segment".

By contrast, consumer loans continued to fall in April, down 0.6% compared to the same month in 2021, due to the 9.5% drop in new production.

However, the report highlights the strengthening of loan yields, both new and outstanding, a fact that is especially notable in consumer loans.

Thus, although experts forecast that loan growth will continue to be moderate throughout 2022, the foreseeable rise in the Euribor will have a positive impact on the interest margins of Spanish banks.

In this context, Credit Suisse has reiterated its preference for CaixaBank, which is "highly sensitive" to movements in interest rates due to its "large proportion" of Euribor-linked loans. In addition, it indicates the forecast that the entity maintains a "low-cost retail deposit base" while its loan portfolio linked to higher variable rates is revalued.