AIReF anticipates a drop in GDP of 0.4% in the third quarter after knowing the employment data

MADRID, 2 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) forecasts that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease by 0.4% in the third quarter of the year in quarter-on-quarter rate, which would correspond to an inter-annual rate in the period of 3.2% .

This is reflected in the latest update of the forecast model for the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real time (MIPred) published by AIReF this Friday, after knowing the data of workers registered with Social Security (average monthly) for the month of August 2022.

With this new update, the level of activity would be 2.9 percentage points below that corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2019, before the pandemic.

In this new update of the MIPred forecast, AIReF has incorporated a new indicator, the data of workers registered with Social Security for the month of August 2022, although it specifies that at this time it only has 28.6% of the indicators for the third quarter (57.1% July, 28.6% August, 0% September). The indicator is updated as new data is published.

Specifically, the model will be updated in the coming weeks with the indicators that will be published in the first days of September, such as the PMI Services Index for August or the total sales of large companies, in the latter case with data for the month of July.

For 2022 as a whole, AIReF forecasts growth of 4.2% for the Spanish economy, one tenth less than in its previous estimates for April (4.3%), and places the average inflation rate for the year at 7 .8%.