The CIS puts the PP two tenths ahead of the PSOE but the left wins in seats and is around an absolute majority

Sánchez almost ties Yolanda Díaz as the most valued politician, but he is now only two points ahead of Feijóo as the preferred president

The macro-survey of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) for the general elections on July 23 draws a scenario of a technical draw, with the PP two tenths ahead of the PSOE, although the sum of the left wins the bloc on the right in seats, hovering the absolute majority.

Specifically, the CIS gives the PP an estimated vote of 31.4% and between 122 and 140 seats compared to 31.2% for the PSOE, which would have between 115 and 135 deputies.

The third place is for Sumar with 16.4% and between 43 and 50 seats, surpassing the result of Unidas Podemos, while Vox falls to fourth place with 10.6% and between 21 and 29 deputies, well below the 52 he achieved four years ago.

In any case, the sum of the PP and Vox is far from the absolute majority in Congress, which stands at 176, while the PSOE with Sumar would have the government within reach since both forces would reach an absolute majority in the highest bracket, or failing that, it would be easy for them to achieve it with some other minority party.

The study is based on 29,201 telephone interviews carried out during 20 days of June, between the 8th and the 27th, with Spaniards residing in 3,734 municipalities in 50 provinces and Ceuta and Melilla. This field work is after the victory of the PP in the local elections and coincided with the negotiations to form autonomous councils and parliaments.

THE PP WINS IN A VOTE ALREADY DECIDED

One month after the appointment with the polls, the PP already has the decided vote of 25.4% of Spaniards, while 24.6% advance their intention to support Pedro Sánchez. The third party mentioned in direct vote is Sumar, with 12.7% of the spontaneous responses, and Vox remains at 8.8%.

Faced with this direct question, there are still 14.1% of voters who have not decided on their vote and another 2.8% who avoid answering. Abstention is in a minimum range: only 2.3% anticipate that they will not go to the electoral college.

What's more, holding elections on vacation does not seem to have made a dent in the voters, since in another question 82% show that they have decided to go vote in person, while 6.6% say they have already requested a vote by mail. and another 6.8% plan to request it.

THE BEST DATA OF THE PP WITH TEZANOS

With all the responses to the questionnaire and the CIS's own formula, the macro-survey gives the PP an estimate of the vote of 31.4%, its best data since the socialist sociologist José Félix Tezanos acceded to the Presidency of the public institute. They are almost eleven points more than the result that Pablo Casado obtained in the general elections of November 2019. Translated into seats, they would be between 122 and 140 deputies, compared to the 88 that he added in the last legislative ones.

But the PSOE is also growing and is only two tenths behind, with an estimated support of 31.4%, 3.2 points above the result with which Pedro Sánchez won the last general elections. It would obtain, according to the CIS, between 115 and 135 deputies compared to the 120 with which this recently finished legislature has had.

That equality between the two big parties is unbalanced with their hypothetical government partners. The CIS sees Sumar on the rise, with an estimated vote of 16.4% and between 43 and 50 seats, when four years ago Unidad Podemos, Más País and Compromís separately achieved 15% and 38 deputies; and instead Vox falls from 15% in 2019 to 10.6% in the macro survey (the same vote estimate from the latest barometers), which would now give it between 21 and 29 deputies, well below the 52 minutes that it has held in the lower house.

In addition, two out of three respondents (65%) are convinced that these general elections will be won by the PP and only 19.5% bet on the PSOE, but on the other hand, there are more who would like it to be the opposite: 31 % want the PSOE to win and 28.4% the PP.

SORPASSO DE BILDU AL PNV

As for the parties of territorial scope, the CIS maintains ERC ahead of Junts, although falling: the Republicans are estimated at 1.6% and from five to seven deputies (they got 13 in 2019), while those from Carles Puigdemont would obtain between three and six seats with an estimated 1.1% of the vote.

The polling body forecasts an advance from Bildu to the PNV: 1.2% and between four and seven deputies for the nationalist left led by Arnaldo Otegi and 1% and three to five seats for the nationalists.

The BNG also appears on the rise with 1% and two or three seats, while Coalición Canaria, Teruel Existe and the CUP are in the air to enter Congress.

Regarding the assessment of leaders, that of Sumar and second vice president of the Government, Yolanda Díaz, repeats the lead with an average grade of 4.70 points, but it is her worst data in a year and a half and the president is already on her heels Pedro Sánchez, who rises to 4.68 points. Third place goes to Alberto Núñez Feijóo, with 4.30, and the president of Vox, Santiago Abascal, is far behind, with 2.96 points.

Sánchez is once again the preferred politician to preside over the Government, mentioned by 28.5% of those surveyed, but the leader of the PP has been cutting the advantage of the socialist and in this macro-survey he is less than two points (26.7% ), when in the last three barometers it was five or six points below.

Lastly, there is a division of opinion regarding the management of the coalition government: 43.3% of those surveyed expressed a positive assessment compared to 48.9% who dismissed it as bad or very bad. Of course, the opposition work of the PP is viewed worse: seven out of ten disqualify it (71.1%) and only 18.5% judge it 'good' or 'very good'.

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