Sentiment analysis: The sentiment in the market before the Bitcoin Crash

The swarm intelligence is based on the idea that large groups of people to deliver better forecasts than individual experts. What the Community felt in the sense with respect to Bitcoin in the days and weeks before the Crash on 24. September. Sentiment analysis can give an answer that can also help in future market assessments.

Of Santiment Team
1. October 2019BTC$8.319,94 , and 0.61%part Facebook Twitter LinkedIn xing mail

developed The market research platform Santiment has an algorithm with which the market sentiment of more than a thousand social channels can be analyzed. Data from various Telegram-groups, Subreddits, Discord, Charts, Twitter and Bitcointalk are assessed in terms of the positive or negative mood.

sentiment around Bitcoin fell a week before the Crash

a representation of the Market sentiment on the various social channels by using Santiment Graphs

And indeed, even before the Crash, the sentiment regarding bitcoin swung into the Negative.

The "Sentiment Balance" calculates the difference between positive and negative messages with respect to a particular crypto-currency and in a certain social channel. In the various Telegram Channels the mood for statements to be "BTC" or "Bitcoin" on the 17th, began. To decline in September:

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Similar to the atmosphere on various crypto related Subreddits say. You could observe that the mood up to 18. September delivery is more neutral. Since then, it has developed, however, on the decline:

clearly you could see most of the decline in the mood to Bitcoin on Discord. Since the beginning of August, the trust fell on different crypto-relevant Discord servers. Although this downward trend at the beginning of September came to an end, the mood could 18 to to. September even improve. Since then, it went, as is the case with the above social channels, with the mood downhill:

The members at Bitcointalk were at the beginning of the month, increasingly bullish about Bitcoin. In the last ten days we saw here, however, is that FUD prevailed. Similar to other channels, the mood on the 17 started. September braved their way into the negative realm:

Professional traders to the negative Sentiment

an Interesting outlier, however, is: In professional Trading chat rooms the mood to a Positive one – increased completely opposite to the behavior on other social channels:

This discrepancy can be interpreted in two Ways:

Professional traders on the other channels experienced mood had deep already, so the mood has since improved.It can, of course, be that professional Trader will experience the disappointment yet. [Display] buy Bitcoin with the Bitwala account. Why have a Bank account with Bitwala? A Bank account is “Made in Germany” with protection of deposits up to 100,000 euros; 24/7 Bitcoin trading with faster liquidity; trading only ‘real’ Bitcoin has no financial derivatives such as CFDs; Secure users of lift-off control of the Bitcoin Wallet and the private key; With the contactless Debit Mastercard worldwide, and pay.

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In view of the fact that this audience is highly qualified and who have studied channels with a higher Signal-to-noise ratio as the Telegram and other sources, and hold the analysts of Santiment the first possibility is more likely.

Bitcoin: Since the summer the Trend of more

presentation of the social volume with Sanbase

It is also worth noting that, regardless of the mood – the reaction of the Crowd on Bitcoins recent decline was relatively cool.

The amount of messages to "BTC" and "Bitcoin" after the Crash faded rally in comparison to the amount of messages in the Summer:

This decline of the social volume could be a Signal for a relative indifference on the part of market participants. Theoretically, this would increase the chances for a reversal of the trend into a Positive one.

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representations of the trend analyses with Sanbase Social Trends

This hope is confirmed, something in the content of the discussions after the Crash: the mentions of "bottom" and "bounce increased" greatly, but also the use of the term "long":

An Increase of the social volume is often associated with significant price movements associated with: the interest of the Crowd reached a climax, which can be reflected in a change in the Trend of the Bitcoin price low. With the Leave of the since June, persecuted Triangle Pattern, volatility has become strong again, according to investors should be careful.

A tool for the social signals of Santiment, the send with respect to certain Keywords, an Alarm, if there are on social media increased social volume.

Santiment is a Market Intelligence platform, which adds to the cryptographic context. You deliver clean data, and tools for market research, behavioral analysis, trading and risk management, as well as Coin/Project Due Diligence.

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The project collects On-Chain, Social Media, price and develcklungsinformationen more than 800 Coins and their networks and uses these data to create custom Tools, metrics, and unique knowledge of the market.

On the Website of the company you will find user-defined Charts, signals, low-latency, market information, and more.

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