Pandemifilmen ”Contagion” from 2011 is being re-discovered and was soon given a new lease on life as the new coronavirus began to spread in the world. Something like that, but in a more narrow circle, has been a study entitled ”The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe.
It's where Lars Jonung, a professor emeritus at the School of economics and management at Lund university, sweden, who sponsored this analysis. The year was 2006, and his place of work, where the EUROPEAN commission ekonomidirektorat.
in the study were picked up and began to circulate among analysts, investors, and economic forecasters, who are all groping in the dark. As the EUROPEAN commission, in the last few days working to get an overview of the economic impact of the coronapandemin, it is also in the models from the 2006 to officials in Brussels, to return to.
" We have had the flu and also had to have had sars, then we started talking about how in the united states. What is the type of preparedness that we should have? "Lars Jonung.
for more information, see the Corona of the tears of the world economy right in front of our eyes.A lone member of the EUROPEAN parliament in the seat of the european parliament in Brussels. Photograph: Virginia Mayo/associated press
the lesson to be learned from the past epidemics, "he says," is the strength of the läkköttet of the national economy, seems to have been the case. The short but to the deep crisis in society has not caused any long-term economic consequential damages, even if mortality rates become high.
" we were after, we looked at past pandemics, where the elasticity is, how quickly it went back to normal. It's as if you push your finger into a balloon. When you remove it, then filled it out again, " he said.
the One exception to this is the black death of the middle ages, which had a dramatic economic and political consequences. However, at the time, it was also about half of the European population, as well as under. All of the other historical examples – from the very deadly Spanish flu of 1918-1919 to the sars outbreak in 2003 have shown that the economic impact will be minor.
During the Spanish flu of decreased retail sales, in New York city for a couple of months, but then increased very rapidly. After the peak of the epidemic, there has been a rapid recovery, with growth has come the growth of which would otherwise have been the case. This can be seen also in other crises, such as after the september 11 attack, " says Lars Jonung.
when he did the calculations for the EU-the commission, therefore, to be a very, very difficult but a pandemic, with millions dead in Europe, and would not leave a particularly deep economic footprint in the long term.
the Tourism industry and the economy would take a big bang, just like we are seeing now, which is, in turn, would become a burden, in particular for the countries of the Mediterranean. However, in the worst case scenario would be "killing" of the EU's gdp to be 2% to 3% on a year to year basis.
Carl Johan von Seth: Therefore, fcov can lead to a global recession.the Actions against the virusspridningen hitting the tourism sector in Europe. This hotel is usually folkfyllda the streets and squares, and the fate of the. Photo LaPresse-Anteo Marinoni/Sipa USA
this, however, is not true, as it has been in the past imagined themselves in the scenarios. Börsreaktionerna is what differs the most.
" When we looked at the previous epidemics, as well as in the asian, Hongkonginfluensan, and the Spanish flu pandemic, as there had been no impact on the stock markets. But for now, we have seen a huge börsras. It can reduce the consumption, it reduces the förmögenheterna, and the birth is then recorded in the real sectors of the economy. The reduction of consumption, the decrease in production and lower capital expenditure, " says Lars Jonung.
If there is a temporary panic, or a real announcement of a long-term crisis of the world economy is not going to know it, according to Lars Jonung.
" I have no explanation that I can trust, but I would like to refer to the stock market crash of 1987. I've written many research papers on it, but it did not come up with any satisfactory explanation of it.
What I'm struck by is that the policy has placed such strong restrictions on trade and movement of people. This is something completely new for me.
the europeans were going to sit in quarantine for an indefinite period of time, nor was it something that, Lars Jonung, and his colleagues imagined themselves as they are, however, a possible human pandemic.
" it strikes me, is that the policy has placed such strong restrictions on trade and movement of people. This is something completely new for me. My suspicion is that when we are in the future, the policy during the course of this pandemic, so the researchers say It was wrong to close the borders, it was wrong to close down day care centers and schools. That's my prediction.
In the economic nödpaket, which is now being launched in Europe, there are various forms of emergency liquidity assistance. The government has allowed the companies to defer their payment of taxes. Second, a lender of last resort, it is the mainstream of the banking system, is also available. According to Lars Jonung, it is exactly the kind of action that provides companies with liquidity, the money is in the account, which is the most important thing in the short term.
Many people also want to go on any longer. The conservatives talk about a ”företagsakut”, where the state is going to go in and provide guarantees to the crisis-ridden industry.
" There is a possible way of doing so. States of emergency opens the door for actions that we would not consider under normal circumstances, the good and the bad. Now facing dozens of small businesses and, not least, restaurants. But how are we going to find a suitable, in general, support for the industry?
for more information, see What you can do – and not do – if you are in the hemkarantän of many millions of europeans were going to sit in quarantine for an indefinite period of time, nor was it something that, Lars Jonung, and his colleagues imagined themselves as they are, however, a possible human pandemic. Photo: Martin Bureau/AFP
the emergency, and the stimulus is in the order of thousands of billions of dollars. It's bigger than the stimulus package, in the context of the financial crisis in 2008. In the negotiations between the White house and the congress is, among other things, a proposal to establish a 1,000–2,000 dollars for all of the american adults.
" the Whole of the Swedish welfare state functions as an air bag. There is a big difference between Europe and the united states. Now that Trump is thinking of something as extreme as helikopterpengar, it is relatively revolutionary in the us fiscal policy as in philosophy. I think that this is a result of the lack of a " european safety net.
in a time of economic crisis, " says Lars Jonung, it is important to allow the economy to function, open up the borders and let people go to work.
" Someone has said that we need to prevent the spread of infection. However, I do think that the cost to society is greater with the karantänerna for each of the groups. There is a good chance that it is a political system, decision-making, which is becoming a threat to the well-being and the health of the public.