”When you hear someone say, ’this time it's different", so in the spring,” wrote the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, in a book about the recurrence of financial crises.
However, it is difficult to come to any other conclusion than that it is a crisis which has now deepened from day to day is different than a ”normal” crisis.
"It has taken a different approach," notes the economist Klas Eklund.
”the black swan” on the implementation of the unforeseen events that so often govern product development. The new coronavirus is a ”black swan”.
The crucial difference from the financial crisis is that people's behaviour has changed, says the Swedish economist Stefan de Vylder.
" this may be dramatic, even in a period of financial crisis, but it has no effect on the behaviour of the ground in this way. Then, go to the subway, and going to concerts and partying, as usual.
A plot of land to Stureplan, in Stockholm, sweden on Saturday, 21 march. Photo: Anders Wiklund/TT
" this is going to continue until we have a vaccine. This is why I believe that the optimistic forecasts are completely wrong, " says de Vylder.
this has very little to do with the restrictions.
" Even if the infection is subdued, in the fall, people will still be reluctant to appear at public events.
" I'm very, very worried about both the political and the economic.
de Vylder, stresses that the beteendeförändringarna not a manifestation of the panic, but it is rational. There's not much the authorities can do in order to get people to return to their normal consumption when there is a cure, " he says.
" People are staying at home for good reason.
However, the impact will be dramatic.
" It's going to be massive failures, with the start of the culture, and the besöksnäringarna. They're not going to be able to borrow from the bank, " says Stefan de Vylder.
. The first thing that happened is the almost simultaneous supply and demand, and the efterfrågechocker, which has had a variety of hard to a variety of industries. The worst part is that in the service sector. Restaurants, transportation, and hotel accommodation could not be retained.
for more information, see the Corona of the tears of the world economy right in front of our eyes.Many of the restaurant owners affected by the coronakrisen. Photo: Anders Wiklund/TT
In the second phase affected the industry. It will now be seen, when the notice started to come in.
the third Stage occurs if and when the unemployment rate is beginning to spread. Then, the fall in demand.
"Why must it be of a different kind," notes the economist Klas Eklund.
" First, you have to make it easier for companies to survive, the support of the lay-offs, offer, loans, and other things. In one of the other packages, you have to adjust the conduct of monetary policy. The package, which is being discussed, is to maintain the level of public demand.
" I think that no matter how much you put into it is the key to how the smittkurvan to be developed. It is not possible to say what action is right or wrong. The death of, or major depression. It's a blur, " says Kerr.
There is an extreme uncertainty and a large range in the forecasts. We have no statistics, no history.
it can leave it at the extreme of the state, however, the greater the hope of a speedy and strong recovery. However, Eklund believes in a ”choppy performance,” in which optimism is replaced by pessimism and you are constantly testing a variety of methods.
" There is extreme uncertainty and a large range in the forecasts. We have no statistics, no history. Therefore, I am suspicious of those who speak peremptorily.
" When u.s. treasuries drop in value of the is always close to the darkness.
however, the sudden downturn could turn tighter to the world economy than the terrorist attacks of 2001.
Reuters asked me a week with about 40 economists on the state. Three-quarters of them felt that the global economy is already in recession. The definition of a recession is a reduction in gdp for two quarters in a row.
the Recession has also reached the united states, according to the number of observers. Many believe that the fall, as is expected from april to June, the biggest since the second world war. The investment bank Goldman Sachs, the most pessimistic, and believe that, in its most recent analysis, the U.S. economy is to fall by 24 per cent in the second quarter of the year.
the Red numbers on the stock market. Photo: Mark Lennihan/associated press
to most observers that there is a new momentum in global economic growth during the second half of the year, and in China even before that.
When China comes into the time – if the infection did not come back for a second to wave before summer, have the financial position.
"They have lost a great deal in the first quarter, but they will come out with less damage than had been expected just a few months ago," says Klas Eklund.
" They're going to want to show the world that they had done everything right. And they are going to try to help out as well, with the masks, and the research of a new vaccine.
relying on strong domestic consumption.
Stefan de Vylder, think of the it is encouraging that in China, so the odds are starting to come in again. There is great concern in the world, he says, the united states, on the basis of their preparedness, and the weakness of safety nets.
" I believe that the united states is faced with a coronakatastrof.
the shock that the terrorist attacks of 2001 and the financial collapse during 2008 and 2009, will be coronakrisen is likely to lead to some permanent changes, and changes in the economy.
It's this, plus the klimatdiskussionen are going to get people to fly less, and spend more time on things that do not require so much consumption. Lots and lots of meetings to take place by video link.
Klas Eklund thinks that the viruskrisen or in combination with other crises, like climate change, and the brexit will be to roll back globalization. At the national level and at the enterprise level will be to build more robust economies in the reserves.
the other will have to be changed, he believes.
" Many people now see that it is possible to have video conferences and to do less traveling. It will be a stepping-stone to a more sustainable technologies.
”It's going to continue until we have a vaccine. This is why I believe that the optimistic forecasts are completely wrong,” says the Swedish economist Stefan de Vylder. Photo: Bertil Ericson/TT
Stefan de Vylder, a similar framtidsspaning.
" It's this, plus the klimatdiskussionen are going to get people to fly less, and spend more time on things that do not require so much consumption. Lots and lots of meetings to take place by video link.
the Companies will have to review their supply chains and don't put all your eggs in one basket. And the savings rate will increase.
" I think it is a wise move. The process of globalisation has run amok. However, there is a risk of an ugly nationalism, closed borders, and the people.
it's good to be the work of a record to be speeded up, says de Vylder.
" anyone who tries to sneak up and take out a patent, and sell yourself, you won't get away with it. It is the collaboration and sharing of information pertaining to.
Carl Johan von Seth: Therefore, fcov can lead to a global recession.