The IMF estimates that a Russian gas cut would subtract one point from Spain's GDP, among the least affected in the EU

MADRID, 19 Jul. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The total and prolonged closure of the flow of Russian gas to the European Union (EU) would have an unequal effect among the countries of the bloc, which could account for up to six points of GDP in the case of the economies of central and eastern Europe, more dependent on supplies from Russia, while in the case of Spain the impact would be around one percentage point, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"During a prolonged total Russian gas cut-off, the most vulnerable countries in Central and Eastern Europe could face total gas shortages and suffer GDP losses of up to 6%," warns the IMF, referring to countries such as Hungary, Slovakia or Czech Republic.

Likewise, the IMF report warns that the impact on the economies of Austria, Germany and Italy "would also be significant", subtracting around 3% from GDP, although it stresses that it would depend on the political response and the exact nature of the remaining bottlenecks and other frictions at the time of closing and, consequently, the ability of the market to adjust.

In the case of countries such as Spain, France or Portugal, the adverse effect of closing the Russian gas tap would be much more limited, with an estimated negative impact of around one percentage point.

"The United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Sweden and Denmark, with little dependence on Russian gas, could adapt to such a supply interruption," the IMF maintains, adding that, given their low storage capacity, any accumulation or reduction in inventory in these countries would have little impact on the rest of Europe.

However, the authors note that these estimated impacts could be mitigated by securing alternative energy supplies and sources, relieving infrastructure bottlenecks, encouraging energy savings while protecting vulnerable households, and expanding solidarity agreements to share the gas between countries.