The banking tax would mean 1,800 million for Santander, BBVA and CaixaBank, according to Credit Suisse

He points out that the market could have reacted "exaggeratedly", although he emphasizes the lack of details of the measure

MADRID, 14 Jul. (EUROPA PRESS) -

Credit Suisse estimates that the impact of the new temporary banking tax announced by the Government of Pedro Sánchez could lead to an aggregate tax burden of up to 930 million euros per year for the three main national banks: Santander, BBVA and CaixaBank, as indicated in an analysis it has prepared on the measure.

This figure would mean that the tax burden would rise to 1,860 million euros for the two years in which the tax is expected to be in force, 2023 and 2024, as announced by Sánchez last Tuesday in the Debate on the state of the nation.

The firm has developed two scenarios, depending on what the tax controls. In the first scenario, the tax burden would be proportional to the banks' market shares in Spain. Under this scenario, it calculates that the potential annual charges would be 400 million euros for CaixaBank (with an impact of 6 cents on its share price); 300 million euros for Santander (with an impact of 2 cents on the value of its securities); and 230 million euros for BBVA, (with an impact of 4 cents).

In the second scenario, Credit Suisse considers that the tax rate is 10% of profit in the domestic market before taxes. With this approach, the annual charges would be 300 million euros for CaixaBank, so that the impact on its actions would be 4 cents; 200 million for Santander (with an impact of 1 cent); and 200 million for BBVA (with an impact of 4 cents).

The firm points out that the market could have overreacted, since its initial estimates of the fiscal impact would be below the losses that banks suffered on the day the tax announcement was announced. However, it highlights the "lack of visibility" about the rate, as the details of the measure are not yet known.

However, Credit Suisse analysts recognize the "probable adverse effect" that the new tax will have on the profits of Spanish banks, although they recall the "solid" capital levels of Spanish entities, as well as their good asset quality. In this way, the firm reiterates its preference for Spanish banks among competitors in southern Europe in terms of credit quality.

In addition, it highlights that, "in the absence of a deterioration in the quality of the assets", the provisions that the entities still 'keep' could be reversed, offering an "advantage" for the estimates of net income.

It should be remembered that the tax announced by the Government on banks would be in force during 2023 and 2024. The Executive expects that with this measure around 1,500 million euros will be collected each year, that is, 3,000 million in total.