MADRID, 3 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Bank of Spain has confirmed that the 12-month Euribor closed September with a monthly average of 2.233%, which implies reaching its highest level since January 2009, when the index to which most variable mortgages in Spain are referenced was stood at 2.622%.
With this monthly average, the index is chaining its sixth month in positive, after last April it stood at 0.013% for the first time since January 2016. In addition, it has increased in September by 0.98 points compared to August , when it stood at 1.249%. Taking the last 12 months as a reference, the index registers a rise of 2,725 points.
In this way, a person who has contracted a 30-year variable mortgage of 150,000 euros and with a differential of 0.99% plus Euribor will suffer an increase in their mortgage payment of around 200.7 euros, that is, they would go from paying 448.6 euros per month to pay 649.3 euros from the review, which is equivalent to an increase of 2,400 euros per year.
The Bank of Spain has also published that the Míbor, the one-year interbank rate that served as the official mortgage market reference for operations carried out prior to January 1, 2000, also closed September at 2.233%.
As for the new official interest rates that are now being published, the one-week Euribor stood at 0.424%, one-month at 0.574%, three-month at 1.011% and six-month at 1.596%.
Regarding the short-term interest rate on money (€STR), defined as the value on the last business day of the month for the purposes of Target2, the average interest rate compounded at different terms (one week, one month, three months, six-month and 12-month) which is prepared and disseminated by the European Central Bank (ECB), the reference interest rate based on the one-week €STR was 0.662%, one-month 0.300%, three-month at -0.101%, at six months at -0.0342% and at one year at -0.457%.
The director of Accuracy, Alberto Valle, points out that the main reason that explains the rise in this index is the expectations that banking entities have of the evolution of the reference rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB) for the coming months. “This expectation comes from a projection of high inflation until at least March 2023, from the reduction in liquidity available in the market due to the change in monetary policy by the ECB and from an increase in risks,” he adds.
Therefore, it does not rule out that the index continues to rise above 2.5%, although it highlights that negative real rates continue, with -8% if the inflation data in Spain at the end of August is taken into account. In addition, he affirms that 2.5% “would continue to be a historically low rate”, so that the ECB would have room to continue with its increases.
From iAhorro insists on this last idea: the mortgage comparator points out that, despite the fact that the rise in the Euribor “is not good news”, the values of this indicator are not yet at the maximum levels reached during previous crises. Specifically, both in 2000 –the year of the ‘dotcom’ crisis– and in 2008 –when the global financial crisis broke out–, the Euribor was above 5%. In addition, although negative values were recorded from 2016 to 2021, “it is usual for this indicator to be positive.”
iSavings indicates that during 2022 there has already been a rise in the Euribor of 2.71 percentage points, since it has gone from -0.477% in January to 2.233% in this month of September. If the historical evolution of the index is analyzed, the comparator highlights that it is “the greatest rise in a year ever recorded”, with three months to go until the end of the year.
The comparator’s director of mortgages, Simone Colombelli, has called for calm in the face of the situation. “Although it is true that it seems that we are seeing, albeit in reverse, the same curve that marked the index between 2009 and 2008, there is no need to be alarmed, a Euribor of around 2% is normal”, explained the expert, that he considers that it is still a “good time” to buy a home and “you can still find good offers on the market”. “Of course, as long as a good study is made of all of them and it is compared between those given by the different banks,” she added.
For the future, Colombelli prefers to be “cautious” when making predictions, since “seen what has been seen, it is almost impossible to get it right”, although he believes that the real estate sector “is likely to enter a difficult moment in a few months, but not dramatic “.
“What could worry us is that it reaches a maximum of 5%, as happened during the 2008 crisis. However, although it depends on what happens with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the macroeconomic situation, we must see that in that At that time, the bank granted mortgages very easily and the solvency that citizens are asked to grant a mortgage today is much higher from the start, so we could expect the impact to be less”, clarifies the expert.
For its part, HelpMyCash expects the ECB to continue raising interest rates at its meetings scheduled for October and December, after the one applied in July –from 0% to 0.5%– and in September –from 0 .5% to 1.25%–.
“Because of this policy, it costs banks more money to obtain financing through the ECB and they apply a higher interest rate on their interbank loans, which is what is used to calculate the Euribor,” say the experts at HelpMyCash. Taking all this situation into account, the comparator forecasts that the index will close the year at 3% or above and will continue to rise in 2023.
Lastly, Hipoo’s Director of Business Development, Juan Pedro Zamora, believes that “the situation in the euro zone is not going to allow a rise in the Euribor to levels of 5%, as was the case in 2008”. In fact, he comments that various financial analysts are making their predictions with a Euribor that will not likely exceed 3.5% “for now”.
