BBVA Research cuts its forecast for GDP growth in 2023 to 1% and revises inflation upwards

MADRID, 6 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) -

BBVA Research has raised its growth forecast for the Spanish economy in 2022 from 4.1% to 4.4%, but has cut that for 2023, from 1.8% to 1%, more than one point below compared to Government estimates (2.1%) and also lower than the forecast of the Bank of Spain (1.4%).

In its latest 'Situation Spain' report, BBVA Research forecasts that the economy could remain "virtually stagnant over the next few months, or even record moderate falls, as a result of increased uncertainty, increased inflation expectations and the rise in interest rates.

"The period of stagnation will be short and the recovery will be reactivated from the first months of the following year", said the director of BBVA Research and chief economist of the BBVA Group, Jorge Sicilia, during the press conference to present the new forecasts for the next quarters.

According to the report, households and companies enjoy a lower position compared to the previous cycle of rate hikes, while the savings accumulated during the period of confinement remain high and investment will be sustained thanks to the European funds 'Next Generation EU'.

Regarding inflation, BBVA Research estimates that, despite the fact that a turning point in the CPI is already perceived, the rate will remain high for some time. In this sense, experts have once again revised upwards the forecast for the average variation in the CPI during 2022, from 7.9% to 9.3%, and from 3.2% to 4.9% in 2023. .

For this reason, BBVA Research sees an income pact as a "priority" and accelerating the implementation of European funds, since in the medium term the situation will depend on the reforms that are promoted.