The transport sector will not return to its pre-crisis peak before 2022

According to a study by Coface, published on Thursday, the aviation sector will be no surprise "the most affected".

the return to normal is not for tomorrow : the global players in the sector of transport by air, sea and rail should not regain their level of activity in 2019 before 2022, according to a study by Coface, which reported an impact "significant and sustainable" due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

In this study revealed this Thursday, the credit insurer is based on the assumption of a recovery with or without a second epidemic wave in the third quarter. In the first case, the turnover of the listed companies in the sector of transport in the world would drop in the last quarter of 2021 of 27% compared to the same period in 2019. Without second wave, Coface anticipates that this decrease will be 5%.

The aviation sector is "the most affected"

not surprisingly, air transport is the sector "most affected". Its global turnover is expected to decline between 51% and 57% in 2020 according to the scenarios, according to Coface. The international air transport Association (Iata), which consists of 290 the world's airlines, estimated that the losses of the sector will be of us $ 84 billion in 2020 and $ 15.8 billion in 2021.

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The drop in air traffic passengers, a victim of the closure of the borders, has contributed to one of the cargo activity, freight is largely transported in the cargo holds of aircraft carrying passengers. In April, the volume of cargo transported by air declined from 27.7% when the capacity offered has sunk to 42%, " says Coface.

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The air cargo represents less than 1% of the global cargo transported by volume but 35% by value. The maritime traffic itself suffers from the effects of the pandemic. The transport of containers has dropped from 6.4% in April compared to the previous year, declining for the fifth month in a row.

Variant depending of the regions

The impact of the epidemic on the rail freight on the other hand "seems to vary from one region to another," said Coface. When it cannot be a substitute for air cargo or by sea - as the United States, where it is used to convey the goods from or to ports and airports, decrease activity. "Union Pacific, one of the most important railway companies in the u.s., has registered a lower high of 22% in volume between April and early June compared to the same period last year, reports the credit insurer.

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"Covid-19", the new coronavirus

United States : the borders with Mexico and Canada is closed until 20 August Coronavirus : 18 new deaths in France in the last 24 hours Coronavirus : the North department, which has the largest number of clusters in France

In other cases, the drop in air and maritime transport took the opportunity to rail : in Russia, the traffic of goods between China and Europe jumped 35% over the period between January and may, compared to the past year and it has almost doubled in may 2020, compared to may 2019.