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Retreats : the five challenges of a reform high-risk

Real big bang, the future universal system of pensions promised by Emmanuel Macron is the site social of the quinquennium. This is the mother of the reforms of

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Retreats : the five challenges of a reform high-risk

Real big bang, the future universal system of pensions promised by Emmanuel Macron is the site social of the quinquennium.

This is the mother of the reforms of the quinquennium. The end of the ISF, orders, Work or the law on the SNCF may well seem anecdotal in terms of the big bang which is outlined on the retreats. No nth grooming for this time, the idea is to build a universal system with a single calculation of pensions for all, in order to meet the promise of the candidate Macron : "a euro contributed gives you the same rights, regardless of the status".

What is known concretely of the future device ? The new system will work always by distribution : the contribution of existing assets to pay the pensions of today's retirees. And the minimum legal age to remain 62 years. Forgotten, however, the quarters : the rights would in future be only expressed in points, and each will have more than one pension only.

so much for the broad lines. For details, the information ends up in dribs and drabs, over the consultations conducted with the trade unions. This also made it a year and a half that the man in charge of the dossier, Jean-Paul Delevoye, démine the field. A planning extension, which is not surprising given the magnitude of the challenges.

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1. The puzzle of the unification of the plans

How to harmonize the calculation of pensions ? This is the real difficulty of the reform to the economist Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, who recalled that, "the 42 regimes co-exist today and that they respond to logic very different". The basic pension is calculated on the incomes of the 25 best years for the employees, but on the last salary earned for at least six months for the civil servants. On the side of the Agirc-Arrco, the additional employees, all the years are in contrast.

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Even in a kaleidoscope of logical for the reversions : some plans, the grant to all widows and widowers, others reserve to the more modest, and the rates vary, as can the age to touch : it is necessary to be 55 years of age in the general plan and 65 years for some liberals, while there is no requirement for officials. It will be necessary to give all these violins. "What will mostly change is the taking into account, for all, the entirety of the career," said Simon Rabaté, a senior economist at the Institute of public policy. According to the profiles, there would be winners and losers. Many officials, for example, fear to be a part of the second category. It is still too early to say, the government has not detailed its intentions.

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Is it acceptable to drastically change the rules along the way while some, notably among the officials or the employees of the special regimes, were able to make career choices at least in part according to the modalities of calculation of pensions ? "Only a long transition, ten years in my opinion, can allow for convergence", notes Jean-Hervé Lorenzi. The high commission for the reform speaks of his side cautiously of "transitions" in the plural : if it is a question of begin to implement the reform from 2025 onwards, this could not be done simultaneously for all.

2. The challenge of solidarity

today, the pension is not a strict reflection of the active life. Rights are granted for periods of unemployment, illness, but also to the parents. The minimum pensions exist in addition, to improve the pensions of those who have contributed for a long time, without interruption, but on low wages. All in all, the system is redistributive : the differences of pensions are less than the gaps between the pay.

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What will happen to these devices ? This solidarity will it be preserved? This is a topic of major concern. In the points system, there is a very strong link between contributions and pensions (X eur chipped = Y points = Z euros of pension).

"Technically, all the mechanisms of solidarity today, however, can be translated, because of the free points can be awarded", reassures Simon Rabaté. The problem, he continues, is that there are also, in the schemes in annual payments, "redistribution mechanisms implied". For example, the 25 best years, or the mode of allocation of quarters that today earn about 6000 € per year is sufficient to validate its four quarters. These two principles can especially benefit those who have worked for several years part-time. "How will the future devices of solidarity outweigh that?" asks Simon Rabaté. For the time being, impossible to decide.

3. The hodgepodge of exceptions

Careers long trades difficult or unsafe, disabled workers, traders and artisans... in Addition to the issue of solidarity, the project of"universality" of the government faces the unavoidable specificities of the statutes and of the course. Would it be fair that, in the future, the system works in exactly the same way for all while the situations are hardly comparable ? That the minimum age for starting is the same for all, for example ? That "merit" of the waivers ?

The high-commissariat was quickly enough clarified that the self-employed would keep contribution levels different, or that check-out is prior to age 62 would remain possible for those who started early and for workers with disabilities. Question remains, where will be placed the cursor between the need to manage exceptions and the universality of the rules, the guarantor of the fairness and readability. The exercise is perilous.

4. The issue of the balance of accounts

The question of the financial sustainability of the system concerned just as much. To the point that many young people are convinced that they have "no retreat". The rights and pensions are now revalued for inflation. This mode of indexing poses a major concern for predictability, and therefore of the steering system, as it makes the system very dependent on growth. We cannot say if, in 25 years, it will be in balance or in deficit of 20 billion euros... it All depends on the assumption of growth restraint.

A solution - which seduced Jean-Paul Delevoye - would be to base adjustments on an annual income changes of assets in order to gain predictability on the accounts and to take decisions on relevant indicators.

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For the system to be sustainable in the long term, it will also neutralize the factor of demography. When the time spent in retirement lengthens, due to the lengthening of life expectancy, or even that the number of births, and thus future assets, decreases, the accounts are mechanically sealed.

"To counteract the effects of the demographic developments, it would be possible to apply a correction coefficient when calculating the pension," explains Didier Blanchet, director of economic studies and summaries of the Insee. There are now 1,7 contributor for a pensioner. For example, one could decide that if this ratio is deteriorating - it is estimated that it will reach 1.3 to the horizon 2070, the pensions of new retirees are slightly less so, to keep the accounts in balance. An idea not simple to pass. Especially as it would make the calculation of the pension less readable for the insured.

5. The delicate choice of the driver

How to ensure that the cap financial is required over the long term ? Jean-Paul Delevoye has been confirmed : the "golden rules" must be set. In clear goals as to the balance of accounts in the system, but also as to the levels of pensions. What will happen if they are not respected ? Governance is multifaceted, involving State, representatives of the world of work and citizens, could decide the corrective measures, but the possibility of establishing "mechanisms more or less automatic" is not ruled out. With what weight for each? A control instance will be created ? This is a key issue, stresses the economist Philippe Crevel. With more than $ 300 billion in annual spending, "pensions are the first social budget in France".

difficult conditions

these technical challenges there is also the one of acceptability is even more important after the yellow vests. "The reform is not unpopular, but can quickly become one, the retirement of civil servants, special schemes, or the reversions can set fire to the powder," warns Philippe Crevel.

Pensions for women and low-skilled workers, arduous, career long : all of the subjects on which the government does not have the right to be wrong, believes his side Frédéric Sap, of the CFDT. "The reform will be accepted if it is perceived as fair," says-t it. In his eyes, it will also provide guarantees to the citizen so that he does not feel deceived in the passage, "why not by creating an independent supervisory authority, which could verify the transposition of the acquired rights in the old system. "The membership of the new system remains largely build", admits the high commissioner.

A tight schedule *

Mid-may 2019 : at the end of the consultations social. Governance of the future system, minimum pension, schemes for career : sensitive issues remain to be addressed in the coming weeks.

June 2019 : presentation of the reform, after the european elections, for a discussion in the Parliament by the end of 2019.

Read our complete file

The pension reform could be "set aside", according to Gilles, The Son-in-law Retreats : after the 49-3 at the Meeting, the battle for the Senate is preparing to Pensions : the macronistes reject the commission of inquiry desired by the socialists

2025 : possible application of the reform. The first affected generation may not be prior to 1963.

* According to the latest announcements.

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