In a number of articles on psychological.now, I present calculations on how large an increase we can expect in suicide and mental disorders in the aftermath of the covid-19.Arne Holte Show more
Conclusion we can expect an increase of between 22 and 90 suicide from before to after the covid-19 in Norway, depending on beregningsmåte.
Where we land, is affected by how long the crisis lasts, the trust we have for each other and politics. The calculations are based on the experiences from the financial crisis 2008-2009, in particular the relationship with unemployment, husholdningsgjeld and banks ' lending rates.
the financial Crisis 2008-2009 is the best model we have for what we can wait after covid-19. The largest study of unemployment, debt and suicide during the financial crisis, includes 54 countries, 27 in the EUROPEAN union.
Results show marked increase in suicide compared with the trend before the crisis (2000-2007), except in Sweden, Finland and Austria. Among men in Europe was the increase of 4.2 per cent higher than expected and the highest in the age group that provides the most years of life lost, 15 to 24 years. Women showed no increase.
Increased selvmordsrater was particularly related to the increase in unemployment among men in countries with low ledighetstall. Norway had a mild financial crisis with very low ledighetstall. Nevertheless, we got an increase of 22 per cent, it will say 74 more suicide, compared with the trend before the crisis had continued.
From august 2019 out February 2020 was the proportion of completely available stable at 2.2 per cent, while bruttoledigheten (completely available and job seekers) was 2.7 per cent. A month later, figures 6,1 and 6,7 per cent, and we take with those laid off, 12 per cent.
In Norway is over 6000 people died of suicide since 2010, an average of 605 per year. The last year we have figures for (2018), took 674 people a life of its own. It is more than six times more dead than in road traffic, in which perhaps ten percent is suicide. Around 70 per cent of these were committed by men, including two of three in its most arbeidsdyktige age, 25 to 65 years, where the suicide rate now is around 23 per 100,000.Divulged selvmordsplanen, was not stopped
For each percent the unemployment rate increased among men in the EU from before to after the financial crisis, increased the homicide rate almost as much. For each cent husholdningsgjelden increased, the increased suicide rate of 0,54 per cent. Among men 25 to 65 years, was 1 percent higher unemployment followed by 1,39 per cent increase in the suicide rate and 1 per cent increased husholdningsgjeld followed by 0,67 per cent increase in the suicide rate. All adjusted for time trends in the years prior to the crisis.
assumed the average number of suicides in Norway the last ten years, assumes that befolkningsgrunnlaget is constant, and uses the financial crisis as a model, can we expect an increase of between 22 and 63 suicide among men from before to after the Covid-19, depending on which ledighetstall we use and whether we use the trend or the last numbers of suicides before the crisis.
What are the numbers which gives the best estimate, nobody will know because we do not know how long unemployment must last before it turns out on the suicide rate.
we Put in place husholdningsgjeld to reason and assume that it will increase by 10 percent, we can expect that suicides among men as a result of increased husholdningsgjeld will increase by 6.7 per cent, or between 41 and 45 deaths from the before to the after Covid-19.
Should husholdningsgjelden increase by 20 per cent as it did in the EU during the financial crisis, the number of suicide among males increase by between 82 and 90 deaths. When will the increase alone approach the number of annual deaths in road traffic, which is expected to go down because of less traffic. But it is less likely.I knew that when the evening came, I had to take my life in my Debate
Very few who are struggling mentally, takes a life of its own. Still happening at least every two suicide among people who have had a mental disorder.
Estimates indicate that for every percentage point the interest rate on loans increases, the number of mentally ill in the Uk with 20 000. Applied to Norway, meaning it is close to 1 700 more mentally ill per percentage point lånerenta increases. If only 1 prosenr of these will take his life and the interest rate rises by 2 percentage points to last year's level, we get 33 more suicide.
This will of course give only a rough idea as we haven't taken account for the differences between Norway and the united Kingdom. Now the central bank has set lånerenta down to zero. It should, at least in theory, contribute to fewer mental disorders than we otherwise would have received.
Analysis of the measures that muted the impact of unemployment on suicide during the financial crisis, shows no effect of the prescription of antidepressants, social assistance or unemployment benefits. But for every 10 dollars, the EU countries spent on active labour market schemes decreased the impact of the 1 per cent increased rate of unemployment among men in the suicide rate of 0,026 per cent.
In addition, the weakened the effect of unemployment on suicide among the men themselves of 0.048 percent for each percent increase in the proportion of the population who had a high level of confidence to the other.
There may be small numbers. But each suicide is an individual tragedy that has effects on a large number of people around the deceased; family, friends, communities. We take the with that suicide attempts may is 20 times more frequent than completed, and that for every suicide can be 10 people who think of suicide, such small numbers have great importance for public health.
from a selvmordperspektiv, contains the way Norway has met covid-19, three proper grip: lending rates is equivalent from the Norges bank is zero. The parliament and the government has led an active arbeidsmarkedspolitikk. Norwegian institute of public health and the Norwegian directorate of Health has placed emphasis on building confidence in the information to the people.
But omprioriteringen of the resources from mental health care to the Covid-19 may have weakened these effects.
Against this backdrop, there is strong cause for concern that one has taken resources from the mental health care that still grows less than the general hospitals and primary health care, to cover up for lack of preparedness against pandemics like covid-19.
There must now be compensated before it is too late.
All projections are of course uncertain. They assume that the financial crisis is a good model, that it is in the incision apply in the EU also applies in Norway, and that the relationships between the change in selvmordsrater, unemployment, husholdningsgjeld and lending rates is causal. Not any of this, we know for sure.I must tell about the little Debate You can submit your article and opinion piece in Dagbladet here
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