While the government is counting on a collapse of 11% and the Bank of France 10%, the decline in the gross domestic product is expected to be lower, according to the Insee.
This is a very relative note of optimism. The decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) in France should be limited to 9% by 2020, according to the notes published by the Insee on Wednesday, while the government is counting on a collapse of 11% and the Bank of France 10%.
After a contraction of 5.3% in the first quarter and by 17% in the second due to the pandemic of sars coronavirus, the GDP rebondirait of 19% in the third quarter and then 3% in the fourth, says the national Institute of statistics. And even if it finally reaches 9%, it will be "the greatest recession since the creation of the French national accounts in 1948," says the note from the Insee.
READ ALSO >> Transport, trade, industry, employment, etc. x-Ray recoveryYour support is essential. Subscribe for $ 1 support Us
"The prospects for production have to increase very significantly : the force of this rebound very much to the weakness of the starting point, that is to say, of the economic activity in the period of confinement," according to the note. "However, the order books, in particular to the international, still considered to be poorly trimmed by the industrial companies, which bodes not of an immediate return to normal", says the institute.
The first estimate of growth of Insee for the whole of 2020
Thanks to the measures taken during the eight weeks of confinement to preserve the economic fabric and employment, "the first steps of the recovery could be climbed relatively quickly, perhaps more than expected. These are the last which are likely to be most difficult, especially the sectors most affected by the crisis", is still in the custody of the Insee.
The institute warns that its estimates are subject to "many uncertainties, above all in the health situation in France and in the world". This is the first forecast of growth of the Insee for the whole of 2020, as well as for the third and fourth quarters. It is also the seventh note on the economic situation published by the Insee since 26 march. The next will be published on 23 July and 27 August.
Read our complete fileConforama, France ceded to Mobilux, the parent company of Aim Covid-19 : the preventable "carnage" american Parades virtual, videos, behind the scenes... In the midst of a pandemic, the fashion week is reinventing itself
The Economy minister Bruno Le Maire has brushed Monday, a dark picture of the next few months, especially for "smaller" and warned that it is "a daunting task" ahead of him.