Global recession : the gloomy forecast of the IMF in three figures

This "crisis like no other" is much worse than expected and the recovery will be slower than hoped, has warned on Wednesday the international monetary Fund.

More than 12 000 billions of dollars of cumulative loss to the global economy in 2020 and 2021 because of the pandemic of sars coronavirus. This "crisis like no other" is much worse than expected and the recovery will be slower than hoped, warns the international monetary Fund. And even if "a high degree of uncertainty surrounds" these forecasts, recognizes the head of IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, while the epidemic is not over. The Express reports on the latest IMF forecast published on Wednesday.

4,9 %

The IMF forecasts a downturn of 4.9 % this year. This global recession, resulting from the containment measures to stem the pandemic of Covid-19, is much worse than the 3 % expected in April in the heart of the pandemic, when the IMF pointed out already that this was one of the worst crisis since the Great Depression of years 30.

All regions of the world are affected by these projections are pessimistic. The GDP of the United States, the largest economy in the world, will plunge to 8 %, compared with 5.9 % estimated in April. The institution also believes that the recovery is expected in 2021 will be less sustained than originally projected (+5.4% against 5.8 per cent).

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12,5 %

The GDP of France is going to fall 12.5 % (-5,3 percentage points) in 2020. France is not the only one in this case. All the countries of the euro zone will experience a severe recession this year (-10,2 %) as a direct consequence of the paralysis of the economy to contain the pandemic.

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The GDP of Germany will contract by 7.8 % (0.8 percentage points), while the GDP of Spain and Italy will both plunge of 12.8 % (-3,7 and -4,8 percentage points respectively), according to data from the IMF. Elsewhere in Europe, outside the euro zone, the Uk is not immune to projections more dark with a contraction of its GDP which is expected to reach 10.2 %, from 6.5 % estimated in April.

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1 %

For the time being, no country escapes the pessimism in the air at start with China, where left end of 2019, the coronavirus. The IMF now sees a 1 % growth for China in 2020, far short of the 6.1 per cent achieved in 2019, which was already at a historic low because of the trade war with Washington.