Expenditures increased, revenues in bern and revised estimates: the figures in the new budget

With the expenses related to the crisis created by the pandemic of sars coronavirus, the government needs to review its copy to the budget 2020. The Express makes the point.

billions Of additional euros to support the affected areas, and tax revenues in freefall : the worsening of the crisis is forcing the government to revise once again its forecasts and its budget for 2020. Here are the highlights of the third draft amending budget.

Fall from 11% of GDP

This new project of the amended finance act anticipates a decline of 11% of GDP in 2020, instead of 8% previously. It will be the stronger recession in France since 1945.

This forecast, which is based on "latest available data", takes into account the impact of the containment "considered quite high" on growth in the second quarter, says one at Bercy. Insee expects a dip of 20% of GDP during this period.

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This figure also takes into account the fact that the restart of the economy "is progressive," with some sectors of activity (food, culture) at the stop until June. Namely: it is also based on an assumption of a reopening of the borders in Europe on June 15 and at the end of the summer with the rest of the world.

Debt-to-top

With the additional spending to support the economy, the public deficit will widen to 11.4% of GDP, against 3% last year, anticipates the government.

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The public debt, should, fly at 120,9% of GDP, whereas it had reached to 98.1% over the last year. France is as well among the european countries most in debt.

40 billion for the affected areas

The government will provide 40 billion euros more to support the sectors most affected by the crisis, through fiscal measures, and support to the business cash.

In the retail, tourism, which represents 7% of GDP, will receive 18 billion euros in the form of loans and equity investments. This sum includes, inter alia, measures for partial unemployment, loans guaranteed by the State, exemptions, social, or deferrals of tax.

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The automotive industry will benefit from $ 8 billion. In addition to help to the part-time unemployment and the secured borrowings, this amount includes one billion euros to support the demand of vehicles (increase in the bonus ecological, strengthening of the premium to the conversion...) and a billion to encourage investments to produce hybrid and electric cars in France (grants to help sub-contractors to modernise, creation of an investment fund).

The government will also invest 600 million euros in additional to technology start-ups, including the establishment of an investment fund managed by Bpifrance. He has yet to unveil next week a plan for aeronautics.

part-time Unemployment benefit : 5 billion extra

In total, this draft budget will include about 13 billion euros of budget appropriations additional.

The mechanism for partial unemployment, part of which is supported by the Unédic, will be equipped with € 5 billion more than the $ 25 billion already planned. This activity support partial will, however, be gradually reduced for businesses in most sectors of activity.

The government guarantees will grow by 12 billion euros by comparison with the amending budget prior, to usd 327 billion. The government is able to improve notably thanks to european funding, from the european programme on the part-time unemployment and the european investment Bank (EIB).

downward Trend of inflation

In its forecast, the government has also taken into account a "downward trend in the inflation outlook", with an estimate "of the order of 0.4% for the year 2020 in France. A figure to be "strongly" affected by the decline in oil prices, according to Bercy.

27 billion revenue flights

Then for the government to mobilise billions of additional revenue from the compulsory levies (contributions, VAT, corporation tax, etc) should still melt 27 billion compared with the forecast in the previous budget to be rectified.

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budget 2020

The C3S, the tax of which the days are numbered for The low-income households, the major losers of the reforms Macron budget 2020 particularly favourable for wealthy households and assets, according to the OFCE

As a result of these two effects, the amount of public expenditure will amount to 63.6% of GDP.