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The year 2023 will end with a new world record for CO2 emissions, according to the Global Carbon Budget

   MADRID, 5 Dic.

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The year 2023 will end with a new world record for CO2 emissions, according to the Global Carbon Budget


Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will once again exceed a new world record worldwide during 2023, when they will reach 36.8 billion tons, 1.1 percent more than the previous year, according to the annual report of 'Global Carbon'. Budget projects' which highlights that, in addition, emissions increased in 2023 in all types of fossil fuel (gas, oil and coal).

The work highlights that CO2 emissions are reducing in some regions, such as Europe or the United States, but are increasing globally and scientists affirm that global action to cut fossil fuels is not occurring as quickly as to avoid climate change. "dangerous".

It also concludes that although emissions from land use changes, such as deforestation, are expected to decrease slowly, they are still too high to be offset by current levels of reforestation and new reforestation.

Thus, the report estimates that total global CO2 emissions worldwide (fossil fuels and land use changes) will reach 40.9 billion tons of CO2 in 2023. This represents a level similar to the levels of a year ago, far from the "urgent" emissions reduction scenario necessary to achieve global climate objectives.

The 'Global Carbon Project' report is published every year within the framework of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, which this year celebrates its twenty-eighth meeting in Dubai (United Arab Emirates). The team of researchers includes around 130 scientists from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO (Center for International Climate Research), Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich and 90 other institutions around the world. world.

Professor at the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute and director of the study, Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, lamented that the impacts of climate change "are evident" but action to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels is still difficult. "painfully slow."

"It seems inevitable that we will exceed the 1.5ºC target of the Paris Agreement against climate change, and leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree to rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to achieve the 2ºC target," he warned.

The work also estimates the carbon budget that remains until the 1.5ºC objective is reached. Thus, with the current level of emissions, the Global Carbon team estimates that there is a 50 percent chance that global warming will consistently exceed the 1.5ºC objective in "about seven years" and in about 15 years it will exceed the 1.7ºC global thermal increase.

However, the researchers highlight that the pending carbon budget before the deadline to achieve the 1.5ºC objective to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is going "too quickly."

Royal Society Research Professor Corinne Le Quéré, School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia, said the latest CO2 data shows that current efforts are neither deep nor broad enough to put global CO2 emissions at risk. on a path toward the goal of net zero emissions, but some emissions trends are beginning to bear fruit, showing that climate policies "can be effective."

"The current level of global emissions is rapidly increasing CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere, causing additional climate change and growing and serious impacts," said the professor who calls on all countries to decarbonize their economies faster than ever. current pace to avoid the worst impacts of climate change," he noted.

The work points out how regional trends will change dramatically, since the Global Carbon Budget indicates that India will end in 2023 with an increase in CO2 emissions of 8.2 percent; in China they will grow by 4 percent while in the European Union 2023 will end with an emissions cut of -7.4 percent; -3 percent in the United States and -0.4% in the rest of the world.

Likewise, the scientific authors warn that 2023 is also expected to end with an increase in emissions from coal (1.1%); oil (1.5%) and gas (0.5%).

In total, CO2 concentrations in the Atmosphere are expected to reach 419.3 parts per million by the end of the year, 51 percent above emissions from the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).

Currently, about half of CO2 emissions are absorbed by carbon sinks on land and in the oceans, while the rest remains in the atmosphere and causes climate change.

The study also shows that global CO2 emissions produced by forest fires also increased in 2023 above average due, above all, to an "extreme" fire season in Canada, where fires have burned between six and eight times per year. above average.