The unemployment rate will fall to 12.5%, 0.02 percentage points less in the interannual rate
MADRID, 24 May. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The number of unemployed will drop in the second quarter of the year to 2,954,900, 5.5% less in the interquarterly rate, but 1.2% more in the interannual rate, according to the 'Quarterly Report on Labor Market Predictions' prepared by The Adecco Group Institute.
The Adecco Group study center has also reported that for the third quarter of the year this figure will be 2,932,700 unemployed, 0.8% less compared to the previous quarter but 1.6% more in the interannual rate, for which reason it will continue below the psychological barrier of 3 million unemployed.
If the forecasts come true, the unemployment rate forecast for the second quarter of 2023 will be 12.5%, 0.02 percentage points less than the same period of the previous year, while the forecast for the third quarter of 2023 will be 12 .3%, which implies 0.4 percentage points less in the interannual rate.
The director of The Adecco Group Institute, Javier Blasco, has pointed out that the data seems to indicate that we are entering a second four-month period of "recovery", but not exempt from the feeling that we are still living in "times of enormous volatility".
Occupancy for the second quarter of the year will grow 1.5% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year, to 20,754,900 employed persons and, for the third quarter, it will be 1% higher than the previous quarter and 2% higher in interannual rate, up to 20,963,800 employed.
The report highlights that the "central scenario" for the second quarter of 2023 is that of an "additional strengthening" in job creation, despite the difficult general economic context.
Regarding the expected average affiliation -- in this case by months and not by quarters -- for May, the prediction is 20,763,653 affiliated people, 2.6% more year-on-year.
For the summer months, it is expected that there will be 20,868,093 in June, 2.6% more year-on-year, and 20,923,942 affiliates in July, 2.9% more year-on-year.
The forecast for the Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is to register a variation of 0.2% in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter, measured in terms of chained volume with reference to the year 2015, a rate of 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter of the year.
At the year-on-year level, the expected variation is 1.4%, which implies a rate 2.4 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter of the year.
In this regard, Blasco has pointed out that, although Spain already seems to have recovered its GDP prior to Covid-19 after 40 months, the country is 7.5 points below the European Union in regional competitiveness, with the exception of the Community of Madrid, with 19.3; The Basque Country, with 7.6, and Catalonia, with 1.3, the only territories above this index that assesses the business environment.