The new survey has been carried out a month after the previous one and the PP and Vox are the formations that are growing the most in the campaign
MADRID, 22 (EUROPA PRESS) - The 'flash poll' carried out by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) for the municipal elections this Sunday returns to the PSOE as the winner, but the Socialists see their advantage over the PP cut to 2 .3 points, almost half of what it had in the pre-election survey at the start of the campaign.
This is a telephone poll with 4,549 interviews carried out between May 16 and 18 that updates the pre-election study that the CIS presented at the beginning of the electoral campaign and that has been released this Monday, the last day that the law allows to publish polls with intention to vote. Unlike the previous work, this time there is no data on the autonomous communities, nor details on capitals.
In that first survey, based on 21,973 telephone interviews carried out throughout Spain between April 10 and 16, the PSOE came out the winner with an estimated vote of 31.7%, followed 4.4 points behind by the PP , to which he gave 27.3% support.
Days later, after an electoral campaign marked by the announcements of President Pedro Sánchez and the controversy over the banning of Bildu, the estimate of the PSOE vote drops to 30.2% while the PP rises to the current 27.9%, which which implies cutting the socialist advantage to 2.3 points, almost half.
What's more, the PP turns the data on voting intentions around, and if in April 22.4% of the people interviewed had already decided to take the PSOE ballot compared to 18.9% who advanced their support for the PP, now the decided voters of the PSOE have dropped to 20.7% while the intention to vote for the PP rises to 21%.
In any case, this second estimate of the CIS vote improves eight tenths of the result obtained by the PSOE in 2019, when it won the municipal elections with 29.4% of the votes. Of course, the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo experiences greater growth since its estimated data of 27.9% exceeds the 22.62% achieved by the leadership led by Pablo Casado four years ago by more than five points.
As for the other parties, the CIS flash poll now places third place in a tie, granting an 8% vote estimate to both Vox and the sum of the different United Podemos candidacies.
Those of Santiago Abascal are the ones who rise the most in this electoral campaign, according to the CIS, since in the pre-election survey they only gave him 6.8% and now they are up 1.2 points. And that in vote already decided has dropped two tenths between one poll and another.
On the other hand, Unidas Podemos, despite rising almost two points in direct voting intention, only advances one tenth compared to the 7.9% vote estimate that it achieved in the survey carried out in April.
Regarding Ciudadanos, which in the 2019 municipal elections was the third party in Spain with 8.73%, now presents a vote estimate of 2%. Of course, three tenths more than what was calculated in the previous macro-survey. The 'oranges' tie with Más País and are behind ERC, which has 2.5% in the flash poll.
TWO OUT OF EVERY THREE VOTERS DO NOT SEE THE CAMPAIGN NECESSARY
The CIS has also asked about the usefulness of the municipal electoral campaign. For 29.2% of the people interviewed it provides information to decide the vote, but for 66.7% it is only "unnecessary propaganda". Even so, one in four admits that they decide her ballot during those 15 days, 7.7% say they do it on the day of reflection and 6.2% on the same voting day. Of course, 58% confess to having their vote decided long before the start of the campaign.
The majority, 69%, assure that their choice is based on the party that most convinces them at all times, but there is 26.7% who confess that they always vote for the same party. 43% see as a priority the program with which each formation competes, 34.3% give more importance to the person who heads the list and 15.6% to the party for which they compete.
Regarding the management of the mayors in the last legislature, there are more, 55.7%, who judge it as "good" or "very good", compared to 32% who censor it.