Popular boredom drives Robert Fico as favorite in the parliamentary elections in Slovakia

The former prime minister, who has promised "not to give a single bullet to Ukraine", takes advantage of months of bitter political crises to return to the front line

MADRID, 30 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) -

Former Prime Minister Robert Fico starts as a favorite in the parliamentary elections this Saturday in Slovakia thanks to a campaign based on the general fatigue of the population with the war in Ukraine and with the current political leadership, unable to consolidate a firm government until the point that Fico, immune to years of investigations for his alleged links to organized crime, has once again become the first option.

This possible return to power -- his Smer (Direction) party leads the polls with 21 percent of voting intentions -- would take place only three years after the defeat of his party against the coalition Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OLaNO). ), in what was, however, the beginning of a roller coaster that has taken the leaders of this alliance, Igor Matovic and Eduard Heger, ahead in recent months.

Internal friction, minority governments unable to sustain themselves and successful motions of censure have ended up leaving the government in the hands of the former deputy governor of the National Bank of Slovakia Ludovit Odor, a witness to the rampant populism exhibited by the vast majority of the country's political parties and which escapes to traditional labels, as demonstrated by the fist fight carried out two weeks ago by Matovic and the former Minister of the Interior under the Government of Fico Robert Kalinak.

In a scenario where insults and violence have been the order of the day, no one has so far moved better than Fico, who has defended, above all, national interests and internal political stability to the detriment of the country's international relevance. .

As an example, the leader of Smer has spent months constantly attacking the country's pro-European president, Zuzana Caputova, to the point that the head of state announced in mid-September her intention to file a defamation lawsuit against Fico after the former prime minister accused her of being an "agent" of the United States. In fact, in May of this year, the president regretted death threats encouraged by Fico's comments, which the former prime minister has never retracted.

Fico, a political survivor as demonstrated by the two decades of existence of his party in a country where formations exceeding a decade of life are rare, leads the polls as the new standard bearer of the opposition, side by side with the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, to Brussels' current policy regarding the war in Ukraine.

Among other examples, Fico has assured that Slovakia "will not sell a single bullet to Ukraine" if it comes to power, that it will do everything in its power to block all imports of Ukrainian grain due to the damage they could cause to small farmers of the country. In addition, he has guaranteed that he will distance himself from European sanctions against Moscow and could veto Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO.

"Peace is the only solution. I refuse to be criticized and labeled as a warmonger just for talking about peace, while those who support war and massacres are called 'peace activists.' mess," Fico proclaimed on September 6 during a rally in the city of Michalovce, near the border with Ukraine.

These messages have put the leader of Smer at the head of elections that could lead to his third term as head of the Government, a position he already held from 2006 to 2010 and repeated from 2012 to 2018, the year in which he resigned after the outbreak of protests over the murders of journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kusnirova.

Kuciak, it should be remembered, was investigating the alleged links between two advisers to the Fico Government and businessmen linked by the reporter to the most powerful Italian mafia, the Calabrian 'Ndrangheta. The parliamentary immunity that Fico enjoys has prevented further investigations against him.

The only politician in a position to snatch victory from Smer is precisely a former journalist, Michal Simecka, representative of the liberal Progressive Slovakia party, to which President Caputova also belongs and which is about two percentage points away from Fico's party. as the maximum exponent of a policy closer to Brussels.

On paper, Fico should have an easier time finding allies to form a government, starting with the Voice and Social Democracy party (Hlas), led by Peter Pellegrini, a former ally of Fico and which now occupies third place in the polls. Fico could also find a partner in Andrej Danko's Slovak National Party (SNS), which would represent the most "conservative" end of the government that could emerge from this tripartite.

However, the volatility of Slovak politics could also leave him on the verge of victory, if Hlas lives up to his name and opts for a pact with Progressive Slovakia. Simecka could also gain support among small neoliberal or Christian Democratic parties, and even among the conservative populist Sme Rodina.

Be that as it may, international experts insist on the need to highlight the impact of the future period of negotiations for Slovakia's European partners, as well as for the development of the Ukrainian war.

"These are elections that are going to have important consequences. The results can not only change the trajectory of Slovakia but also help to reshape the entire region," recalls Atlantic Council expert Petr Tuma, "because we could be facing the expansion of a group of countries that question support for Ukraine in the heart of the European continent, along with Hungary, Austria to some extent and parts of the Balkans.

"They could form a nucleus reminiscent of a certain ancient empire," the expert suggested, referring to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, one of the great world powers for almost a century until its dissolution in World War I.