Bitcoin's (BTC), recent rally has finally reached widely-anticipated new all time highs. Many analysts feel more confident than ever that 2017 will be the same year as 2017, with September falling behind and "Uptober," delivering on high expectations.
TechDev, crypto analyst, tweeted that the price chart for 2021 closely tracks 2017 and it's astonishingly close.
Is it possible to continue on an upward trajectory?
Follow the indicators
Many data points to commonalities in the patterns of the two cycles. The relative strength index is used by traders to determine overbought or oversold markets. It follows the same path in 2017 as 2017. Each cycle had two peak periods in 2013 and 2017. If events continue on the same course, we are still due for a second rally.
TechDev's bold prediction is that a $200,000 BTC market price will be "programmed into" Korean trader Mignolet also believes that the decline in volume moving from spot markets to derivatives markets is a positive signal for the market. Some believed that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 even before the new all-time highs in September.
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics company, recently published a review about long-term hodling patterns. This supports the argument that there will be another rally. These results show that coins are only able to hold for longer than a statistically significant time period of 155 day. Once prices have broken the previous all-time high, they will be able to enter the market. Current on-chain patterns show a tendency toward accumulation.
Simply put, the long-term holders of BTC ensure that there is a high demand and a low supply.
But not all agree that history is repeating. Mati Greenspan (founder and CEO of Quantum Economics) said that 2021 is not a mirror of 2017.
"2017 started with Bitcoin reaching $1,000 per coin. It slowly snowballed over the course of 2017, continuously breaking new records, and a crescendo that reached its peak in December. We saw the mass mania in the beginning of 2017 and then a slow extension of that momentum.
Other indicators support this view and show a tentative correlation. 2017 saw BTC's dominance drop sharply in the first half of 2017, before rebounding as it moved towards the $20,000 resistance. Similar trends were evident in early 2021, with dominance increasing since September. But, the direction of travel is not yet unambiguous.
Active addresses are on an almost-vertical upward trend by 2017. Although the trend is stronger than BTC's dominance here, it's still on a gentler slope.
Could it be that investors are more interested in 2021 than they were in 2017?
It appears likely. It is possible that net transfer from and to exchanges will be similar to those of the last bull market. Overall, however, the market is acting more measured.
Micha Benoliel is the co-founder and CEO of Nodle Internet-of-Things Network. This could explain these patterns. He spoke to Cointelegraph and said that the situation was completely different.
"The COVID crisis has affected many of our economies and the amount of money printed central banks to support our economies has reached new heights. Bitcoin is a safe way to hedge against inflation rates that are increasing.
What can we expect from BTC?
No matter how the present mirrors the past, Bitcoin's price has been a major focus of analysts since before the week's spectacular price action.
TechDev's $200,000 forecast is higher than most forecasts. Analyst Filbfilb, however, predicted prices of $72,000 in November.
Then there's PlanB, which is a reliable and consistent investment strategy. He is the creator of the stock to-flow model for Bitcoin and predicted that October would close at $63,000 and November will close at $98,000. According to his stock-to-flow model, he believes BTC will reach $135,000 by December. He claims that BTC would have reached $100,000 if that prediction was correct.
It seems the analysts will instead reveal details about a new price or on-chain data model driving these frighteningly accurate monthly price predictions.
It can last how long?
The 2017 bullish sentiments reached almost $20,000. December was the peak of the run. Although there was a smaller breakout in January, it did not bring new hope.
It is also worth noting the fact that the last major bull run in Bitcoin was in 2013, when the price peak occurred a few weeks before at the beginning of December and the end of November. Another rally occurred in January after the peak.
If history repeats itself, December could be the moment when the market enters a new phase in this halving cycle. PlanB believes that it will last longer, however, based upon his unreleased on-chain model.
However, models and metrics cannot account for market news that is unfolding or other events that could impact prices. Bitcoin has escaped multiple regulatory blows by the Chinese government and Elon Musk, and gained greater recognition from financial institutions and the financial sector. Stabilizing economies and investor interest in crypto’s market-beating returns have helped to maintain support.
Related: Crypto cracks Wall Street's ETF Barrier: A watershed moment?
Although the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) news has propelled the markets to great bull territory, there is no guarantee that the positive sentiments will continue to drive the markets. The ongoing US regulatory drama and a growing energy crisis that could impact mining profitability are two other factors that could throw the markets off-course.
Currency.com CEO Steven Gregory believes that the current ETF hype has similar feelings to 2017. He told Cointelegraph that there was excitement when the first Bitcoin futures contract was added at CBOE. But, he warns against getting wrapped up for the cold of a new crypto winter.
"There are some parallels between 2017's bull run and 2021's cycle. However, adoption is much greater and open interest is higher. The utility of crypto is unrecognisably further along than 2017.
Although it doesn't guarantee the outcome, it seems bullish sentiments seem to be overwhelmingly strong at this stage. Whatever happens, 2021 will be remembered as the year with the most action in crypto's rich history.