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Bildu, Melilla and vote buying broke the campaign, which leaves an open stage in CCAA and key capitals

MADRID, 27 May.

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Bildu, Melilla and vote buying broke the campaign, which leaves an open stage in CCAA and key capitals


The Spaniards will go to the polls tomorrow after an atypical electoral campaign punctuated by the controversy of the Bildu lists with 44 ex-convicts of ETA and the arrests for alleged vote buying in Melilla, Mojácar and Albudeite (Murcia), which have broken the campaign and modified party strategies on the fly, leaving a wide open arena for 28M in key communities and cities.

To these cases that affect the Coalition for Melilla, as well as the Andalusian PSOE, has been added the request of the judge to the TSJA to investigate the number three of the Andalusian PSOE, Noël López, in relation to the kidnapping of a socialist councilor in Maracena (Granada ) and the complaints by the PSOE and Podemos against the PP in several towns in Huelva, Castilla y León and Murcia for voting by mail.

This succession of scandals has not only stressed the campaign, but has also buried the original design that the parties had programmed, giving way to a very open scenario in autonomous communities such as Valencia, the Balearic Islands or Aragon and important capitals, such as Barcelona, ​​Valencia or Seville.

The Socialists, who had planned a campaign of electoral announcements at rallies -such as the construction of 186,000 homes or the interrail bonus to attract the young vote- which were later approved in the council of ministers on Tuesday, concluded the electoral campaign at defensive and avoiding ruling on the aforementioned scandals. Sánchez, who avoided these issues at his rallies, attacked the PP accusing him of "muddying" the campaign to demobilize the electorate.

The Prime Minister who began the campaign by visiting US President Joe Biden at the White House had already been forced to speak from Washington to try to settle the Bildu matter. "It's not decent even if it's legal," he declared from the gardens of the presidential mansion.

For his part, the leader of the PP took the issue as a flag and during the first 10 days of the campaign he recalled the pacts and assignments of the PSOE to Bildu, hammering home the question of whether Sánchez would agree again with this party.

Sánchez's attempts to redirect the campaign, betting on attracting the female vote with the Parity Law, the announcements in Health or the enhancement of economic achievements, were covered by other issues. This situation has caused concern in many socialist sectors that fear a negative effect on the vote next Sunday.

On the 'popular' side, the feeling at the end of the campaign has been very different since Feijóo has taken advantage of all these cases to try to get the undecided to opt for the PP, helping them achieve clear majorities in CCAAs and municipalities.

Also Santiago Abascal, who had been charging against the PP for its resistance to agreeing with Vox to form governments, launched in the final stretch to use all these cases against the PSOE but without losing sight of Feijóo. It has even presented itself as the only party capable of stopping the Moroccanisation of the autonomous cities, after pointing out the possible involvement of Morocco in buying votes by mail.

And Podemos did the same, trying to steal the vote from the left by blaming the bipartisanship for the situation, charging especially against the PSOE and establishing itself as the only political space capable of ending this "corruption". Belarra thus finished off a harsh campaign against Pedro Sánchez's party, but without neglecting the criticism against Sumar, recalling that the Coalición por Melilla, accused of buying votes by mail, was part of the Turia Pact that supports Yolanda Díaz.

In addition, Ciudadanos refocused his campaign asking for an investigative commission in Congress after calling the alleged vote buying "embarrassing".

The results of this atypical campaign are uncertain. According to the latest CIS flash survey carried out after the Bildu controversy, the PSOE cut its advantage over the PP to 2.3 points and Vox ranked third with 8 points, after growing 1.2, tied with Podemos, which only advances one tenth and stands at 7.9 points. Ciudadanos was left with a testimonial 2 percent.

However, other polls such as that of GAD 3, gave the PP the winner with a 4-point advantage in the municipal elections.

As for the regional ones, the surveys show growth for the PP in all squares after absorbing a good part of the Ciudadanos vote. Thus, most polls give victory to the 'popular' in La Rioja, as in Murcia, while the PSOE would continue to govern in Extremadura. It also seems clear that Ayuso will govern in Madrid with the only question being whether or not he will be an absolute majority. But other territories such as the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands and Aragon remain very open.

Whether the government of the community that Ximo Puig now presides over is left or right may depend to a large extent on whether Podemos enters Parliament.

Not in vain, the leaders of all the parties have turned to this territory, especially Sánchez and Feijóo -the latter filled the bullring as in the good times of the PP in the Community-, but also Yolanda Díaz. Although it is not clear how the division of support that he has made supporting Compromís in the City Council and Podemos in the Community will operate in the vote. The situation has become so strange that Díaz has supported Joan Ribó for mayor in front of the Podemos candidate.

There are also doubts about the future government of Cantabria, since some polls show a drop in the PRC, Revilla's party and an increase in PP and Vox, with which the Government may depend on the sums.

In Navarra, it is not expected that the right wing that goes to the divided elections will join the elections and it is foreseeable that the Government will leave the PSN pacts with Bildu and Geroa Bai.

In Castilla La Mancha there are polls that give Emiliano García Page the clear winner and others in which the result is closer. But the truth is that Vox is expected to enter the regional Parliament, Ciudadanos disappearing. In fact, Santiago Abascal has turned to this CCAA, with four events in the campaign and closing in Toledo.

These doubts that are also transferred to key capitals where the government is going to be very close, in many cases, due to doubts about the endurance of Podemos. This is the case of Seville, where the PSOE remains strong but there is a doubt as to whether it will join the coalition of Podemos, IU and other parties, since the result of both blocks is very tight.

The situation is also reproduced in Valencia and Valladolid, where the left added only one more councilor than the right in 2019. In Barcelona any of the three candidates --Collboni, Trías and Colau-- could be the most voted since the polls They are not clear about it. In Madrid, Malaga or Zaragoza, the PP could have large majorities by absorbing Ciudadanos.