The bear market in pictures: looking back at the Bitcoin exchange rate developments by 2018

the The year 2018 is not that long a thing of the past, and despite the recent reappearance of the memory of the bear market is still quite fresh. But as the whole the market has been around in Numbers?

Dr. Philipp Giese
12. January 2019TeilenFacebookTwitterLinkedInxingemail

What a year. The most moving article in the year 2018, we have already reported. For numbers affinity and friends of the Charts and a picture says often more than a thousand words. In this sense, we look at the bear market by 2018, from different angles.

All of the data used in the Charts originate from Coingecko. The data differ somewhat from the well-known, the supplies Coinmarketcap. Advantage over the well-known Coinranking-side, however, is that one can view the development of the rates of the trading volumes and market capitalization more closely.

development of a market capitalisation

For all the justified criticism of the market capitalization as a measure (of these and alternative sizes, the Special crypto-compass-issue of January 2019), it is one of the accepted reference value. For an analysis of the crypto-market to 2018, this is a good place to start.

the fate of the entire market capitalization, as well as all other crypto-currencies is well-known:
The total market capitalization has fallen from an all-time high of approximately 840 billion dollars to 110 billion dollars. The last Time the crypto-market, saw the market capitalisation in September 2017. A total of 85 percent had to lose in 2018.

As you can expect in a bear market, it increased the Bitcoin domination. After they reached in January and may Minimums of about 35 percent, since mid-August, was stable at above 50%:
While XRP could continue to expand its share of the total market capitalization, had currencies of all the Crypto in favor of Bitcoin shares. XRP and Ethereum are, respectively, about ten percent, Bitcoin is at 50 percent. The remaining 30 per cent must comprise nearly four thousand listed Assets among themselves.

According to the analysis by Brendan Bernstein and The Crypto Fam Consulting an Altcoin rally is in the distance. Such Altcoin rallies are already more signs of a bull market in which investors invest in Assets with higher risk.

has changed, and How the cast of carousel?

sites like Coinmarketcap or our course index the role of this market capitalization. The higher this is, the more visible the crypto-currency. This can have a positive impact on an Investment. At least you are still in the focus of the cryptographic Community and can appeal to new investors.

According to the stable, the picture for the Top 10 looks. Although Cash and, later, Bitcoin SV – crypto-currencies, which were not already to the beginning of the year in the Top 10, the majority was, however, arrived already in January 2018 there:

In this figure, the Hiking of the current Top 10 from the 31 is existed with EOS and Bitcoin. December shown over the year. The y-axis represents the Coin Ranking, the x-axis the time. The deeper a value axis, the y -, the higher its value was in the Coinranking.

Mostly everything was more or less stable. An exception to this Tether. The development of Tether in the Coin-Ranking traces the development of the market capitalization. No wonder, because of dramatic price increases in Tether is not considered. The Rise of the Tether in the Coin-Ranking is an indicator for the bear market.

The whole picture is, of course, turn around. What is the crypto-currencies that made up the Top 10, in the course of the year? The picture is similarly quiet, but a bit frustrating for friends of IOTA, DASH or NEM:

Temporarily NEM even fell to 20th place, however, is also here, none of the Top 10 currencies, like really deep. All crypto-behaved currencies as stable?

variations in the Coin's Ranking in the year 2018

of Course not. As in a previous article presented, the General principle is the rule of thumb is: the older and more unknown, the more uncertain the Position on the Coin Ranking Sites. If you look at currencies over 3600 Crypto, one obtains the following picture:

to be displayed On the y-axis is the Coin Ranking at the beginning of the year 2018. On the y-axis you can see how much crypto currencies using the year 2018, their Position changed, that is to say how extreme the fluctuation in Coin Ranking. The individual points record for the individual crypto-currencies, which are colored according to their age. In order to have a better overall view of the behavior, we have chosen a logarithmic representation.

You can see that the fluctuation of Cryptocurrencies in the Coin-increases the Ranking of up to about 500 linear. Beyond – also because of the Coins on these "cheap seats" are much younger – no more increase in these fluctuations. In fact, it falls back in really unknown Coins on very low values. However, this behavior is attributed more to the age of the very young Assets.

A red market under the magnifying glass

Unedited Footage of a bear market, the Alan-Resnick-Fan would say me. Yes, the bear market was not really nice. Taking into account the age of the Coins, and weighted on the younger tokens low, currencies lost all of Crypto, an average of 94 percent.

Which Coins were affected by the bear market the most and which are comparatively went lightly out of the year? Let's look at the maximum Drawdown in 2018:

Even before Bitcoin, if not a lot in front of the mother of all crypto-currencies, were able to protect themselves Binance-Coin and decentra country from further losses. In contrast, it has taken a particularly AION, Bytecoin and Bitcoin Diamond.

to put such losses into proportion: A loss of 82 percent means that an Asset needs to fold its rates again increase to the original value. For a Bitcoin Diamond, it is even more dramatic: The rate of this crypto-currency would have to rise by a factor of 200, in order to reach the black Zero.

in Spite of crypto-Winter: hope is attached

The crypto market can surprise. Remember the development of the Bitcoin rate between 2016 and 2017. In this time, has fueled the price-34 -. Ripple could be times in these two years of his course, almost ver-400 -. So you should not immediately buried all hope.

more importantly, The views of the all-time high, the view may be cloudy on any profits. Similarly, the noc is at the point h to the Dollar Cost Averaging remembered. A few months ago, I introduced how you can mitigate by using a regular investment, the pain of initially poor Investments something. Especially in times of a bear market, a reminder may be salutary, such an Investment was worthwhile long before the price explosion of 2017.

"Hidden Champions" – Which currencies to withstand the bear market?

in addition to this approach, it is worth always to look for possible "Top-performers". After we see the market in such a way in the red, begs the question: "Is this the bottom?" As I have with respect to such debates, as to Bitcoin said more often: From a real bull market, I speak only when the MA20 has been overcome in the weekly chart in a sustainable way. So, if the price of Bitcoin for several weeks above the moving average of the last 20 weeks, Yes, then I reject myself out of the window and talk again of a bull market.

Like other crypto are currencies with respect to said mean value? Crypto-currencies are now lasting about the same, you should retain, where appropriate, in the eye. If you choose this approach, should be pursued within he Top 100, currently, Waves, Factom and Revain:

The year is still young, much to young, to follow the Trend of bold Price predictions! If you want to have an approximate Range of the price of Bitcoin 2019 may develop, of course, gross estimates. In February of 2018 I presented Monte Carlo simulations for the modeling of price developments. If this and takes into account the entire history of Bitcoin, would the price of Bitcoin to new year's eve 2019 between US $ 2,100 and 12.300 US dollars with a probability of 68 percent.

let's see if Bitcoin will stay the course in this framework – and, hopefully, more of the upper because the lower bound tests.