Between theory and practice: Is Bitcoin really an anti-cyclical Investment?

anyone Who has followed the business press in the last few weeks, the have noticed one thing: It is especially performed frequently, the risk of an imminent recession. The macro-economic mood has darkened recently by the trade dispute between the US and China, as well as expansive Central Bank's confessions further. More current than ever, the question of the extent to which Bitcoin's benefits as an anti-cyclical Investment during economic turmoil. As to the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets, is appointed, and if Gold really has so many similarities with Bitcoin.

By Sven Wagenknecht
23. August 2019 BTC$10.438,98 2.93% part Facebook Twitter LinkedIn xing mail

On the question of whether the Bitcoin price goes up, when it comes to economic policy distortions, there is no clear scientific evaluation of the evidence of such a connection, without a doubt. If anything, it is its Non-correlation to other Assets, which an investigation with a larger time interval to the result. So far, it's mainly his lack of correlation to other currencies and Assets, which makes Bitcoin so attractive.

Why must cultivate a correlation

Exactly this is likely to change in the future, however. The stronger the crypto-Economy, and above all, Bitcoin will be integrated into the existing financial market, the more likely he is to establish himself as an asset, or currency, which shows very good reactions to market events. The fact that the inflow of institutional money is rising in the crypto-market, are also the behaviors in which an Asset reacts, affects. In short: It not only plays a role, what are the properties of an asset brings to the table, but also who holds the asset or manages. While in the ICO-Hype in 2017, mainly by private individuals for the market responsible goods, today it increasingly institutional investors.

Just because Bitcoin has anti-cyclical properties, do not have to respond, therefore, also anti-cyclically to economic and political events. The unstable Fiat currencies, the more attractive alternative currency are constructs such as Bitcoin. Currently, like high-risk Central Bank decisions in the Image of Bitcoin to help and his economic need, their direct effect on the Bitcoin price, however, is severely limited.

Bitcoin and Gold: competition or coexistence?

Would respond to the price of Bitcoin classic anti-cyclically, there should be a stronger positive correlation to the anti-cyclical classics on the financial markets: Gold. Interestingly, the positive correlation between Bitcoin and Gold falls to despite the obvious similarities (yet) tends to be low. Depending on the time interval, a negative correlation between the two Assets can even be identified. In the last few months, however, an increase in the positive correlation can be noted. Whether this is, in turn, is on a different sheet. It would be due to the different nature of the assets in Bitcoin and Gold, a little too easy, a direct competitive relationship to derive.

due to their scarcity, satisfy, although both assets are similar to the interests of Investors. Also, it is obvious that in the future not only of Gold by the Central banks is kept, but also Bitcoin. Nevertheless, enough differences remain, which lead to an either or, but a both / and.

to Buy, when the cannons roar?

economic and political events can certainly influence the Bitcoin rate, however, this would have to be of enormous extent. Would break out of a financial crisis like 2008, then the Bitcoin would certainly course react immediately to this event. To demonstrate this statistically, it is currently possible only with difficulty. At the time of the financial crisis, there was no crypto-currencies and major economic distortions have been since then, too.

Grayscale-report: Assumed relationships pretty

prepared in a way obvious to a Bitcoin price increase if, as currently, a tightening of the US trade war with China breaks out, there is no statistically valid evidence. Although there are reports that try to this to suggest, however, one should not ignore the self-interests of the publisher. For example, the Bitcoin asset managers Grayscale has released a report of Bitcoin as an excellent anti-is cyclically functioning of the Asset. Even if this connection may seem logical, there is a lack of scientific objectivity. Until there are more reliable evaluations, it will take several years. Finally, it must be collected sufficient historical data and economic scenarios, by living, to be able to statistically clearer statements about the behavior of the Bitcoin meeting.

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